6
A. Toppinen et al. / Futures 88 (2017) 1 – 14
[(Fig._2)TD$FIG]
Fig. 2. The main change factors covered in the Delphi study.
industry by focusing on the main change factors that enables us to analyze the industry from many perspectives. The questions in the fi rst round, which were also based on previous literature regarding industry change factors, related mainly to the current and future situation of the PPI in terms of competition, pro fi tability, long-term survival, and industry structure. The panelists were also asked to evaluate future business opportunities and sources of long-term value creation. The second round focused on the issues that provoked the most discussion or dissenting opinions in the fi rst round, with an emphasis on innovativeness and industry renewal. The key issues discussed in the previous rounds were [73_TD$DIFF] brought together in the third and fi nal round, and the panelists were asked to evaluate the expected change in factors and the signi fi cance of this change. They were also asked to describe a future scenario of the European PPI in 2030.
4. Results and discussion
4.1. The current industry structure in terms of pro fi tability and innovativeness
In the fi rst round we asked the panelists to assess the current situation of the European PPI, especially with regard to competition, pro fi tability and long-term survival, and the vitality of the business. Referring to competition and pro fi tability, they clearly communicated that the situation differed in different segments of the industry. The decline in demand for some paper grades was characteristic of European markets in particular, but the situation was better in some other segments such as northern softwood pulp. Packaging paper, hygiene products, specialty papers, and liner board were also mentioned as examples of product groups showing higher current pro fi tability. Even though overall pro fi tability was perceived as generally rather low, it had its strengths. As one respondent put it:
Table 2 Innovativeness and future orientation (mean values by respondent groups).
Representatives of industry association and other experts [1]
Representatives of academia [2]
Industry experts [3]
Overall mean
Innovativeness in the industry is more widespread now than ten years ago. R&D should be more strongly directed to developing new innovations. The companies in the industry take climate change well into account in their R&D strategies.
3.83
3.71
4.00
3.82
3.83
4.57
4.25
4.24
3.50
2.57
3.50
3.12
The companies in the industry take end-customers ’ needs well into account in their long-term decision-making. 3.50
2.71
4.50
3.41
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