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A. Toppinen et al. / Futures 88 (2017) 1 – 14
“ Europe has know-how, education and technological advantage in its side, which can be seen competitive advantage. Also, the sustainability in Europe is taken more seriously into account, which may give access to certain markets where less sustainable peers fail to succeed . ” The panelists expressed divergent opinions about long-term survival and vitality. Again, the perceived prospects of the different segments differed. Some respondents saw further cost-cutting as a necessity, whereas other experts highlighted opportunities related to replacing fossil-based with bio-based and renewable products. The following citation exempli fi es the potential seen in the PPI, but also points out the need for change in this traditional mature industry: “ It seems to me like there are good opportunities for the pulp and paper industry. The logistics are there, the renewable material and the environmental bene fi ts are there and a number of global trends and political initiatives are in line with the pulp and paper potential to grow. But to meet that potential I guess the industry has to be very innovative and ready to develop. ” In the second round we asked the panelists to further assess the current situation in terms of innovation, R&D and end- customer orientation (Table 2). They graded the following statements on a scale ranging from one (completely disagree) to fi ve (completely agree). As Table 2 shows, innovativeness was seen generally as more widespread than ten years previously, although the respondents thought that R&D activities should be more strongly directed towards new products, and that climate change should be taken into account more in R&D strategies. Perceptions on taking into account end-customer needs varied. Representatives of academia perceived the industry situation less positively than the other two groups, suggesting that climate change and end-customer needs were not taken well enough into account, and that R&D should be more strongly directly towards new products. Members of the groups gave quite similar answers, except to the question concerning end- customer needs: the industry experts scored customer orientation most highly. When asked about current R&D investment, almost all the respondents responded that the level of investment was too low. Given their expectation that new products would generate about 40 percent of turnover in 2030, it is clear that further investments in R&D are needed to achieve this target.
4.2. Value creation potential in 2030
Next we asked the experts to describe the PPI in Europe in 2030 in terms of industry structure, competition, business pro fi tability, long-term survival and business vitality. Many of them suggested that consolidation would continue, and hence the industry would be further concentrated, and the majority expected the PPI to be as large or smaller in terms of employees in Europe. Many of the respondents thought there would probably be larger mills and companies, but at the same time also opportunities for smaller-scale, specialized producers serving niche or geographically limited local markets. The question concerning competition divided opinions. Many of the respondents expected it to be tough in 2030, but some thought that there might be less competition due to increased differentiation, for example. Some of the experts thought that more competition would come from outside Europe, among other things because the European industry would no longer have technological advantage compared to Asia and other emerging markets. However, some also pointed out that European producers would focus on smaller-scale specialized production, whereas large-scale manufacturing would take place closer to the growing markets. Overall, the pro fi tability level of the industry in 2030 was expected to be quite positive. However, the pro fi tability of companies depends on their ability to change their business logic, as the following citations clearly show: “ Some segments might have better pro fi tability than today, especially those succeeding in bringing high-value products to the market. The more traditional segments perform as today. Those clinging to traditional business models and cost structures perform worse than now, if they can survive until 2030 . ” “ It uses different business models than today, in order to retain control over the material. Shifting from bulk material producer towards more involved in the supply chain to deliver solutions. The companies that succeed in this transition will be more pro fi table, and have better relations with customers and end-users . ” The responses concerning long-term business survival and vitality re fl ected the belief that the industry ’ s future depended on its ability to utilize the raw-material base and pulp innovatively, and to create new businesses and value streams. Two experts described this well: “ Long-term viability of pulp industry is likely to be secured, if innovation and research have been fruitful and several new applications for pulp are found. Pulp, as a renewable product, has secured its position as multipurpose raw material in several industries . ” “ I wouldn't talk about traditional pulp and paper industry. Instead there will be more specialized business with new products in Europe. Future for these businesses can look rather good . ” We further asked the respondents to estimate how big a proportion of turnover in 2030 would come from the current (2014) products. Fourteen of them gave their estimates in percentages, ranging from 30 to 75, the average being 61. Almost all representatives of the industry association and other experts, as well as the industry experts, mentioned a fi gure of at least 60 percent, whereas members of the third group (i.e. representatives of academia) gave the most diverse estimates, ranging from30 to [74_TD$DIFF] 75 percent. In the second round we asked how large a proportion of these new products would the existing
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