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A. Toppinen et al. / Futures 88 (2017) 1 – 14
[(Fig._4)TD$FIG] [(Fig._5)TD$FIG]
Fig. 4. The predicted change in the raw-material base by 2030 [50_TD$DIFF] and the signi fi cance of the change to the business.
Fig. 5. The predicted change in products by 2030 and the signi fi cance of the change to the business.
the other questions in the three Delphi rounds gave the impression that this opinion could be related, in part, to the sourcing of alternative fi bers or paper recycling. With regard to products (Fig. 5) the respondents thought quite consistently that the change would be rather large (average 5.6), but that its signi fi cance would be even greater for the future business (average 7.8). This result is in line with the responses concerning the proportion of turnover coming from new products in 2030 (in the fi rst round), which was expected to be around 40 percent. Of particular note in the data on markets (Fig. 6) is that the industry experts appeared consistently to be of the view that the markets would have changed quite substantially by 2030. The average expectation is as high as 6.1 even though the other expert [76_TD$DIFF] groups anticipated somewhat less radical change in this respect. It thus seems that the industry experts expected market change to be a key issue in the near future (average 7.8). The overall signi fi cance of the change was rated 7.5, on average. In general, the market issues that arose in the other Delphi rounds were related, among other things, to the role of Asia and the increasing environmental awareness of consumers.
[(Fig._6)TD$FIG]
Fig. 6. The predicted change in markets by 2030 and the signi fi cance of the change to the business.
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