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A. Toppinen et al. / Futures 88 (2017) 1 – 14
Table 3 Future scenarios presented thematically.
Themes
Key points
Quotations
Resources, raw material and energy
- [54_TD$DIFF] increasing competition for raw material - [55_TD$DIFF] resource ef fi ciency - energy ef fi ciency
“ The competition over a scarce yet renewable raw material will increase if all expectations loaded for raw material will materialize in relatively short period of time. ” [1]* “ Increased demand for recycled fi ber . . . ” [2] “ Energyef fi ciency is a key issue in Europe 2030, so the PPI should produce its own energy and not be dependent on the energy market. PPI will produce its energy at its plants, but also in co-owned wind, solar power, and waste power plants. The forests will not be used massively for energy, as they are too valuable for that either as fi bre or as forest stands. ” [2] “ . . . smaller production scales in part of the industry [59_TD$DIFF] [...]openup opportunities for innovation, normally off-limits by the high capital lay-out of large mills. ” [2] “ . . . the industry will further diversify into what is called ‘ bio-economy ’ and focus on very high added - [60_TD$DIFF] value bio-based products. ” [1] “ . . . integrated mills will play a more prominent role in the bio-based economy converting part of the now excess wood to valuable chemicals. ” [2] “ The PPI and other forest-based industry will together [form] new strategic alliances with other industries which will develop new business models and value chains based on biomass from the forest and by-products from the forest-based industry. ” [1] “ . . . suf fi cient level of R&D should take place because the bioeconomy discussion will be diverted from plain bioenergy. ” [1] “ Consumers are becoming more and more environmentally aware, so consumer behavior will have a greater in fl uence on the PPI environmental performance than we see today. ” [3] “ . . . more consumers understand bene fi ts of bio-based materials. ” [3] “ Competition from Asia will drastically diminish the production of pulp for paper as well as graphic paper, in addition to the reduction brought about by the competition from electronic ICT. Companies that prevail in Europe will to an increasing extent rely on the production of niche products. ” [2] “ The Asian countries are already more important to us than they used to be, and I expect them to become even more important as there is a huge growth. Asian companies will of course also increase/start new capacity, but I think it will not fi ll the need of products in Asia. ” [3] “ Asian competition is tough, but they have lost part of their cost competitiveness due to e.g. higher salaries. ” [3] ” A more resource and energy-ef fi cient European industry is able to capitalize on the increasing demand for sustainable products, while at the same time increasing its competitiveness with other regions. ” [2] “ In the policy discussion it should be recognized [that] there are multiple targets set for developing forest based industry. This will result in challenges. ” [1] “ . . . we may expect a slowdown in the regulatory approach toward environment protection/performance . . . ” [1] “ Environmental regulation has hopefully found more reasonable terms in Europe, or the other way round the other parts of the world have tightened their regulation too. ” [3] “ While we may expect a slowdown in the regulatory approach toward environment protection/performance, the industry will keep improving its overall sustainability, possibly with a bit more focus on social sustainability. ” [1] “ But the headline for the future scenario is probably about acting sustainably to ensure a strong position while meeting growing needs as well as competition from markets outside Europe. ” [3]
RDI, technology, products
- [56_TD$DIFF] more diversi fi ed product variety - [57_TD$DIFF] emphasis on niche, high-value-added products - [58_TD$DIFF] less volume, but more value
Value chain and strategic partnerships
- [61_TD$DIFF] signi fi cance of strategic partnerships with other sectors (e.g. chemical industry) will increase - [62_TD$DIFF] the transition towards bio-economy
Consumers
- [56_TD$DIFF] more consumers who are environmentally aware
Competition
- [63_TD$DIFF] the role of Asia - resource and energy ef fi ciency as competitiveness factors
(geography)
Policy and
- [62_TD$DIFF] the stabilization of environmental regulation - [64_TD$DIFF] multiple policy targets create competition for raw material
regulations
Sustainability
- [62_TD$DIFF] the expanding role of sustainability (mainly market-driven)
*) [1] = Representatives of the industry association and other experts, [2] = Representatives of academia, [3] = Industry experts.
expected the biggest change in this factor (average 6.7). However, on average all the groups rated the signi fi cance of the change rather similarly (average 6.3). With regard to future scenarios (which are discussed in the next section), the panelists pointed out the need to diversify the product portfolio, and put more emphasis on niche markets and high-value-added products. In our view this is in line with Fig. [77_TD$DIFF] 9.
4.4. Future scenario
In the third round we asked the respondents to describe a likely scenario of European PPI in 2030, taking into account the aspects brought out in the previous Delphi rounds such as resource scarcity, competition, and increasing product variety. We analyzed the data in two phases. First, the members of the research team individually coded the scenarios de fi ned by the
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