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panelists. The responses were compressed and grouped under themes speci fi ed by each member. The classi fi cations were compared in the second phase and then the fi nal classi fi cation was created. Table 3 below describes the future scenario by themes, including the key points and representative quotations from the responses. To summarize the scenario presented in Table 3: in 2030 the European PPI will be more resource and energy ef fi cient, produce more diversi fi ed products, will also serve niche markets, and will focus on high added-value and environmental sustainability. The role of strategic partnerships as well as the environmental awareness of consumers will increase. Under the likely vision of the future of the industry, the importance of Asian companies and markets will continue to increase, and regulation will level off between Europe and Asia. We will discuss the implications for industry renewal strategies and future research needs in more detail below.
5. Conclusion
Contribution of this study is for the fi rst time to consider the future of the European pulp and paper industry in bio- economy from a strategic viewpoint, covering the full spectrum of aspects ranging from industry structure, technology and innovations to competition in product and raw-material markets. Previous futures studies in the fi eld have also more dominantly focused on bio-energy ( [71_TD$DIFF] Pätäri, 2009) or bio-re fi ning (Näyhä & Pesonen, 2014), while bio-energy driven businesses have only limited potential in capturing value towards higher end products or services (Näyhä et al., 2015; Roos & Stendahl, 2016). We studied the current situation of the PPI in terms of industry structure and the potential for value creation in 2030, using a three-round dissensus-Delphi approach. According to the panelists, the current level of pro fi tability and competitive situation in the European PPI is largely product-segment-speci fi c. Although pro fi tability in some product segments was assessed as being better than in others, the overall pro fi tability was generally perceived as rather low. Some of the panelists expected competition from other parts of the world to continue to have a strong in fl uence on the European industry in the future, especially when producers in emerging markets have caught up with the European level of technology, whereas others referred to the major strengths of the European industry, such as the quality of education and know-how. The sustainability investments that have been made were seen as a further strength, and as a basis on which to contribute to a bio-based economy. The solutions to ensure long-term industry survival and vitality divided the panelists in their opinions. Although some experts foresaw further cost cutting as a necessity, the higher-level opportunities of the industry were seen to lie especially in substituting fossil-based with bio-based products. The industry ’ s future appeared to rely heavily on its capability to innovate and develop new bio-based products. Expectations in this respect were re fl ected, for example, in the prediction that an average 40 percent of the turnover in 2030 would come from new products, but either the need for or the expectation of RDI and new products also came up repeatedly in different forms in the answers to the various open questions. This fi ndingis fairly well in line with the industry-driven roadmap for the Finnish forest cluster (2010), in which 50 percent of turnover is predicted to derive from products that were not on the market in 2006. However, the high level of diversity between the groups on the perceived industry capacity to realize the new products and services in their 2030 turnover demonstrates the high degree of uncertainty regarding the future of the sector. More radically, some panelist expected that the businesses ’ chances of operating pro fi tably in 2030 required changes not only in the products but also in business logic. Clearly, breaking free from the dominant industry logic (see Prahalad & Bettis, 1986) requires the recon fi guration of established norms and beliefs, and a shift in focus from incremental innovations and the maximum utilization of existing assets towards the search for more radical and novel solutions in order to capture value. In this particular industry context, and fueled by ambitious European climate and energy policies and the concept of bio- economy, there is a strong call for the establishment of cross-sectorial collaboration in R&D aimed at developing renewable bio-based materials to replace traditional paper products, chemicals and bio-fuels. Applying the new concepts in the process of developing new products, integrating into new value chains, and starting commercial-scale businesses will require a fundamentally better understanding of the new markets and customers, and of managing change, R&D and technical expertise: it will also require suf fi cient fi nancial resources (see also Näyhä et al., 2014). The European paper industry has recently been actively developing a Public-Private Partnership on bio-based industry to boost innovations, perceiving itself as a solution provider in sustainability and a strategic actor in the EU economy. According to the assessments of the Delphi panel, there seems to be scope for further prioritizing actions and developing comprehensive research agendas that go beyond technological innovations and take into account markets, consumers, and the whole institutional context. Developing more diversi fi ed and competitive businesses in PPI also includes inevitably some switching costs. There is also a need for addressing sustainability challenges in the transformation to bio-economy and development of better quality standards. These all call for solid leadership and management capabilities in the industry, and a more proactive stance, as also emphasized by Roos and Stendal (2016). With regard to the industry structure, many of the panelists expected the consolidation to continue. However, they also thought that there would be more room in the industry for smaller-scale, specialized businesses targeting niche markets, which would re fl ect the competitiveness of such companies. More generally, the respondents predicted that the main drivers of competitiveness in 2030 would include energy and material ef fi ciency, sustainability, as well as the already mentioned new innovations in processes and products that would meet both regulatory requirements (such as carbon neutrality) and changing customer needs. The role of the regulatory environment and political uncertainty comprised a factor that was not
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