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A. Toppinen et al. / Futures 88 (2017) 1 – 14
expected to appear as strongly as it did among the Delphi panelists as a major issue that will shape the future of the European PPI. Overall, the fi ndings of the Delphi study indicate that the actors in the industry are faced with several parallel changes in their business environment that are driven by goals arising from the need for sustainability and for maintaining the industry ’ s competitiveness. The pulp and paper sector ’ s potential to align itself with the changes largely depends on the ability of management to see the longer-term opportunities. No strategic renewal will take place if the industry continues on its path of incremental investment and short-termism, with a strategic focus on improving cost ef fi ciency: such a strategy could also prolong its pro fi tability problems. It is also interesting to compare our results with those reported by Darkow and von der Gracht (2013), who used a Delphi approach in building scenarios for the European chemical industry. Their fi ndings also emphasize sustainability and resource dependency as the two main factors shaping the industry up to 2030, and contributing to its competitive advantage. They also discussed the role of the regulatory framework in driving innovation, the strengthening competition from Asia and the need for diversi fi cation in business models. All these aspects were also identi fi ed as applying to the pulp and paper industry, which is understandable given the structural similarity between the two capital-intensive and mature process industries operating in global markets with high price volatility. In terms of limitations, the number of respondents and their country of origin could have affected the results of this study: a different combination of panelists may have emphasized the change factors differently. However, given that Delphi has proved to be a suitable method for exploring complex phenomena lacking exact data, and that the panelists were high-level industry experts, it is feasible to assume that the results re fl ect the current and expected future situation fairly well. Further research could focus on what changes, in terms of strategic investments for example, are required in the industry for it to achieve and maintain global competitiveness in the future. From the sustainability perspective, an interesting future avenue would be to combine futures research with studies on business models, as recognized among transition theorists (e.g. Loorbach & Wijsman, 2013) and in the fi eld of organizational management (Zollo, Cennamo, & Neuman, 2013).
Acknowledgements
Financial support from Academy of Finland (Grants no. 278306 and 278363) is gratefully acknowledged.
Appendix A. Titles of the expert panelists.
Leading Consultant; Innovation and Bioeconomy Director; Environmental Director; Forest Director; Principal; International Development Expert
(1) Representatives of industry associations and other experts
Professors (2); Senior Researchers (2); Associate Professor; Researchers (3)
(2) Representatives of academia
Sustainability Manager; Environmental Manager; Senior Specialist, Environment and Responsibility; Manager, Quality and Environmental Information; Manager, Sustainability and Corporate Affairs
(3) Industry experts
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