TR_October_2020

MARKETS & TRENDS

RENTALS

Top Performance Towns JOB MARKETS AFFECT RENTAL MARKETS

by Ingo Winzer

JOB LOSSES VS LAST YEAR JANUARY JUNE

eing the best of the worst isn’t usually something to write home

B

about, but when job losses in many markets still top 10 percent, a loss of four percent doesn’t seem so bad. Because some states have been more aggressive than others about reopen- ing their economy, it is not surprising to see markets in Florida, Texas, and Arizona among those where the job situation is less bad. But these mar- kets were all doing very well before the pandemic hit, so their presence on our list of top performers is not just linked to pandemic-related factors. The largest loss of jobs in all markets is at restaurants, with an average 20 percent loss. This sector of the econo- my is unlikely to improve anytime soon, which means we will see few mar- kets with real growth no matter how well other sectors do. And this in turn means that the economy in all markets can’t really recover until the pandemic is under control. But for investors it also means that the rental segment of real estate will be affected much more than the home-buying segment in the next couple of years. • Our Investors Metro Monitor shows you the risks and opportunities in 200 local markets at www. LocalMarketMonitor.com.

US Average

-1.5% -8.7%

2.3% 0.3%

Ogden, UT

3.0% -1.0%

Boise City, ID

0.8% -2.8%

Oklahoma City, OK

3.2% -3.0%

Phoenix, AZ (pictured)

1.6% -3.3%

Knoxville, TN

3.5% -3.5%

Dallas, TX

3.0% -3.8%

Jacksonville, FL

2.6% -4.4%

Tampa-St. Petersburg, FL

3.0% -4.4%

San Antonio, TX

2.1% -4.4%

Colorado Springs, CO

LOCAL MARKET MONITOR, CARY NC

Ingo Winzer is president of Local Market Monitor, which analyzes conditions in 300 U.S. markets, using such economic data as home values and growth in employment and population. Winzer, who has analyzed real estate markets for

more than 20 years, was a founder and executive vice president of First Research, an industry research company that was acquired by Dun & Bradstreet in March 2007. He is a graduate of MIT and holds an MBA in finance from Boston University. Winzer resides in Cambridge, Mass. www.localmarketmonitor.com

92 | think realty magazine :: october 2020

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