sagging sales and surplus sellers in september The Central Okanagan’s housing market bucked seasonal trends in September, with sales falling sharply alongside growing listings as high interest rates continue to impart an outsized impact.
September, compared to 6.6 in August (an MOI of less than 5 reflects a sellers’ market; 5-8 MOI reflects balanced conditions; and an MOI over 8 reflects a buyers’ market). As we move through the remainder of the year expect these broader trends to continue, namely that high interest rates will continue to dictate (far more than seasonality) the ebbs and flows of market activity. Looking ahead to October, the typical pattern is another month of decreasing listings. But with each passing month, more and more homeowners will continue to feel the pinch of high rates, either through sustained high variable rates or via contract renewal. So instead, expect to see elevated listings and higher-than-typical inventory for the remainder of the year.
September is a month that typifies transition: from summer to fall and back-to-school, it represents a time of change for many. And with those changes, Kelowna residents are often more focused on their day-to-day routines, and less focused on participating in their local real estate market. As a result, the typical August-to-September pattern is a decline in each of the main metrics tracked: sales counts, new listings, and inventory. Last month, however, was a notable departure from that typical seasonality, as macroeconomic trends—specifically high interest rates—were the main drivers of activity, bringing fewer buyers and more sellers to market. Let’s start with sales counts: last month there were 264 MLS transactions in the Central Okanagan, which represents a 27% decrease from August vs. the typical 7% decline. It was also 44% less than the past 10-year
September average, 20% fewer than one year ago, and the lowest total of any month since February. Meanwhile, there was a notable increase in new listings last month, with September’s total of 949 up 23% from August (the typical pattern is a 5% decline). That’s also 19% above last September and 26% above the long-run September average, as more would-be sellers entered the market. With fewer sales and more listings last month, inventory was able to expand at a time when it normally contracts. The 2,519 listings available at the end of September were up 7% from August (compared to the typical 5% decline), and were 17% higher than last year. In fact, inventory reached its highest level since July 2020, and is now 9% above the past-decade average. This combination of increasing supply and drop in demand yielded a substantial increase in the months- of-inventory metric (MOI) again, to 9.5 in
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