economy
01. economy The loss of jobs during this “Great Suppression” has been historic, and so has the rebound. The recovery has some ways to go.
LEARNING A LESSON FROM THE GREAT RECESSION
As the Great Recession of 2008-09 unfolded, Metro Vancouver lost 38,100 jobs over the course of eleven months, shrinking overall employment by 3.1%. As a result, the region’s unemployment rate, which had been among the lowest in the country, surged from 3.6% to 8% within two years. At the time, it was considered an historically severe economic downturn and, over the next 12 years, that perspective held true. Then came the Great Suppression. While differing in its genesis and the nature of its manifestations, the coordinated economic shutdown that began in March 2020 resulted in a once-in-a-lifetime loss of jobs across Canada and in British Columbia. In Metro Vancouver, the economy shed 264,900 jobs in threemonths,withone in five workers being put out of work (not tomention the many thousands who saw their workdays and weeks reduced).
Having said that, the rebound—associated with a gradual re-opening of the economy— has been equally unprecedented, with employment in Metro Vancouver rising by 9% via the recovery of 113,500 jobs over the following three months (despite August shedding a couple thousand jobs). Having seemingly already touched the bottom of this downturn, we now look ahead to when the region’s job base might recover to its pre-pandemic level. Barring a substantial second wave of Covid-19 through the fall of 2020, there is optimism that a return to the region’s former employment capacity could come sooner than later. The optimismmay well be warranted, though it is noted here that during the Great Recession it took 3.5 years to return to pre-recession employment levels. Our government, businesses, and households would be wise to prepare for the same.
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