STATES WITH THE BIGGEST YEAR-OVER-YEAR INCREASE IN SCHEDULED FORECLOSURE AUCTIONS IN THE FIRST HALF OF 2023
is also supported by two other survey results relating to roll rates: (1) from seriously delinquent to foreclosure start and (2) from foreclosure inventory to completed foreclosure auction. On average, survey respondents said they expect 6.4% of their organization’s seriously delinquent mortgages to start the foreclosure process on a monthly basis for the rest of the year. That monthly roll rate is nearly on par with the pre-pandemic average roll rate of 7% between 2017 and 2019, and it is more than three times the 2% roll rate from 2020 to 2022. Similarly, survey respondents expect roll rates from foreclosure inventory to completed foreclosure auction to increase from their pandemic-era averages for the remainder of 2023. On average, respondents said they expect 6.6% of their organization’s foreclosure inventory to complete the foreclosure process each month for the rest of the year. That roll rate is more than three times the 2020 to 2022 average of 2% and even above the pre-pandemic average of 4%. If applied to current foreclosure inventory volumes based on Black Knight data (234,000 as of the end of April 2023), the 6.6% monthly roll rate would result in about 84,000 completed foreclosure auctions in the second half of 2023, up
SCHEDULED FORECLOSURE AUCTIONS IN FIRST HALF OF 2023
STATE
ANNUAL INCREASE PCT OF FIRST HALF OF 2019 LEVELS
Oregon Alaska
497% 194% 143% 127%
104% 121%
Idaho
51%
Colorado
175%
Utah
89% 74% 68% 64% 63% 61%
90% 77%
Montana
New Hampshire
115% 164% 130% 103%
Connecticut
Michigan
South Dakota
substantially from the 48,000 in the second half of 2022, but still well below the 114,000 in the second half of 2019, according to ATTOM Data Solutions data. EMERGING FORECLOSURE VOLUME BY STATE Whether that specific prediction turns out to be correct for the second half of 2023, real-time data from Auction.com shows where scheduled foreclosure auction
volumes are already increasing in the first half of 2023—suggesting corresponding increases in comple- ted foreclosure auction volumes in the second half of 2023. Nationwide, scheduled foreclosure auction volumes in the first six months of 2023 were up 29% from a year ago. Despite this increase, scheduled foreclosure auction volumes nationwide in the first half of 2023 were still at just 61% (or 39% below) what they were in the first six months of 2019.
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