MANAGEMENT’S DISCUSSION & ANALYSIS
SaskEnergy Incorporated First Quarter Report INTRODUCTION
March 31, 2011
The Management’s Discussion and Analysis (MD&A) highlights the primary factors that affected SaskEnergy’s consolidated financial condition and performance for the six months ending September 30, 2019. Using financial and operating results as its basis, the MD&A describes the Corporation’s past performance and future prospects, enabling readers to view SaskEnergy from the perspective of management. The MD&A is presented as at November 25, 2019, and should be read in conjunction with the Corporation’s condensed consolidated financial statements, which have been prepared in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standard (IAS) 34 Interim Financial Reporting using accounting policies consistent with International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). For additional information related to the Corporation, refer to SaskEnergy’s 2018-19 Annual Report. The MD&A contains certain forward-looking statements that are subject to inherent uncertainties and risks. Many of these risks are described in the Risk Management and Disclosure section of SaskEnergy’s 2018-19 Annual Report. All forward-looking statements reflect the Corporation’s best estimates and assumptions based on information available at the time the statements were made. However, actual results and events may vary significantly from those included in, contemplated by, or implied by such statements. The volume of natural gas delivered to customers is sensitive to variations in weather, particularly through the prime heating season of November to March. Additionally, changes in market value adjustments may cause significant fluctuations in net income due to the volatility of natural gas prices. Therefore, the condensed consolidated financial results for the first six months of 2019-20 should not be taken as indicative of the performance to be expected for the full year. In order to compare financial performance from period to period, the Corporation uses the following measures: income before unrealized market value adjustments, realized margin on commodity sales, and realized margin on asset optimization sales. Each measure removes the impact of fair value adjustments on financial and derivative instruments and the revaluation of natural gas in storage to the lower of cost and net realizable value. Unrealized market value adjustments vary considerably with market prices of natural gas, drive significant changes in the Corporation’s consolidated net income and may obscure other business factors that are also important to understanding the Corporation’s financial results. The measures referred to above are non-IFRS measures, in that there is no standardized definition, and may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other entities. INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
SaskEnergy monitors a number of important factors that could influence financial performance.
Natural Gas Prices
The price of natural gas is set in the open market and influenced by a number of factors including production, demand, storage levels, takeaway capacity, and general economic conditions. Given the high demand for natural gas to heat homes and businesses during the cold winter months, and the demand for natural gas to produce electricity for air conditioning during the summer months, weather typically has a large impact on price in the near term. Due to the high degree of uncertainty associated with weather and Alberta gas line maintenance/infrastructure issues, natural gas prices in both Alberta (AECO) and Saskatchewan (TEP) have been volatile in recent years. Natural gas fundamentals remain in a strong supply position relative to demand. AECO weighted average 5A index (daily settlement) price was $0.93 per gigajoule (GJ) through the six months ending September 30, 2019 compared to $1.13 for the same six months in 2018. Alberta natural gas prices saw volatility with spikes upward and downward due to maintenance that limited supply, and gas line maintenance that limited takeaway capacity. Negative spot prices occurred a number of times during the six months ended September 30, 2019 and an Alberta infrastructure deficit continues to be an issue. TC Energy (formally TransCanada) did change curtailment policies with the backing of the Alberta Government which has added temporary stability to the market at higher prices. Despite the positive effect this policy has had on storage injections, Alberta natural gas inventories are currently well below five year average levels, which could cause bullish spot pricing in the event of below normal winter weather.
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2019-20 SECOND QUARTER REPORT
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