PREDICTION MARKETS
would technically fall under the definition of binary options, they cannot be marketed as financial trading products to consumers. The second reason concerns taxation: In the UK, gambling winnings are tax-free, a huge advantage for users. To retain this advantage platforms must stay strictly within the definition of gambling preventing them from being integrated into financial apps or pension portfolios. 9 Although the UK seems well served by prediction market-style products, that is not to say that developments in the U.S. are not having an impact. As of Q2, 2026, UK betting exchanges were starting to restyle their user interfaces to mimic U.S. platforms. Matchbook launched a dedicated prediction market interface focusing on politics and entertainment with a simple yes/no percentage-based user interface much like Kalshi's. 10 Ireland is taking a similar view to that of the UK saying that prediction markets "bear the hallmarks of betting activity " and thus require a betting license. Applications opened in February 2026 with the first licenses expected by July 2026. The position in Austria is somewhat more complex although most prediction market offerings are legally unproblemtic 11 and would be licensed as betting by Ministry of Finance. Certain bets are prohibited and markets on these outcomes would remain off limits. If prediction markets strayed too far towards financial instruments, they would fall foul of Austria's Financial Markets Authority which bans the marketing of derivative products to consumers European Union The situation in the rest of Europe is much more restrictive and fragmented than in the UK with many European nations viewing prediction markets as a form of unregulated gambling that needs to be shut down. Several major EU countries have taken aggressive action against international prediction platforms like Polymarket.
Because these platforms often operate via blockchain and do not hold local gambling licenses, they have faced bans in a number of member states: • France: Typically quick off the mark, the National Gaming Authority (ANJ) officially banned Polymarket in late 2024/2025. 12 France reinforced its opposition to prediction markets in a statement in February 2026 13 drawing attention to characteristics it claimed were particularly addictive. • Portugal and Hungary: these two countries joined France by banning Polymarket in January 2026. Portuguese regulators specifically noted that betting on political events is prohibited under its national law. 14 • Belgium & Romania: Both countries have blacklisted prediction market domains, ordering internet service providers to block access for their citizens. • Poland: The Ministry of Finance added several prediction market sites to its Register of Illegal Gambling Domains. • Netherlands, Germany, Greece and Cyprus: All four have bans of one kind or another on prediction markets As the IMGL Magazine went to press, nine European gambling regulatory authorities announced a joint initiative targeting unlicensed prediction market platforms across the continent. Coinciding with the start of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, regulators from Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain and Switzerland have pledged enhanced cross-border cooperation to tighten oversight of the rapidly expanding vertical. Looking further forward, the biggest change anticipated in 2026 is the full implementation of the Markets in Crypto- Assets Regulation (MiCA) across the EU. 15 This creates a fork in the road for prediction markets with operators given a choice between a gambling path or a financial path. The gambling path: If a platform wants to offer yes/no bets on the events like the Oscars or political elections, they will have to obtain a gambling license in each of the 27 EU member states: an expensive and difficult task. It is made even more
9 https://taxfix.com/en-uk/blog/do-you-pay-taxes-on-gambling-winnings/ 10 https://www.ukbookmakers.org.uk/2026/01/matchbook-confirms-first-uk-prediction-market-but-how-will-it-be-regulated/ 11 Prediction Markets: Between Betting, Financial Instruments and Digital Information Markets Christian Rapani / Felix Hohenthanner 12 https://docs.polymarket.com/polymarket-learn/FAQ/geoblocking 13 https://anj.fr/plateformes-de-marches-de-prediction-des-sites-illegaux-en-france-qui-peuvent-presenter-des-risques 14 https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=fed6d04b-1b54-460d-88a2-746779b6bc89 15 https://www.legalnodes.com/article/mica-regulation-explained#
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IMGL MAGAZINE | JUNE 2026
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