PREDICTION MARKETS
prediction market that isn't sports-focused and state-sanctioned is generally considered illegal. The Norwegian Gaming Authority is known for being aggressive with black market operations using DNS and payment blocking to hamper unlicensed prediction sites or crypto-based betting platforms.
Beyond regulation As noted, although there are regulatory obstacles to Prediction Markets and their promoters setting up shop in European markets, that is not preventing the larger players from dipping their toes into the water. Depending on the way local regulations are framed it is not impossible for prediction market mechanics to be tweaked in ways that would see some equivalent clear the legal bar. However, it is an open question as to how successful any such launches might be. Whilst many US regulators have been vocal in demanding that state regulation should not apply when it comes to any forms of gambling, it is not clear they are worried too much about a challenge in their own markets. Indeed, some attendees to the joint IMGL-IAGR masterclass held during ICE admitted that, while prediction markets overall have made a splash, much of that could be accounted for by California and Texas i.e. the two largest unregulated markets. Products that are engineered as regulation- avoiding substitutes tend to be successful only where consumers are kept away from the real thing. In a sensible and sustainable regulatory and tax environment, licensed sports betting and casino games will normally win out. For the most part, despite a different interface and some novel features, prediction markets are not really offering anything genuinely different from online sports betting and especially betting exchange. Where they are it is at least as likely that established players will incorporate these features rather than lose out to US imports. The exceptions are operators like Polymarket with their acceptance of crypto bets. These are growing in popularity, particularly with younger gamblers. As with product-types and game play dynamics, when the regulated market is prevented from keeping up with consumer demand, the black market is handed an advantage.
iii. Turkey: crypto converts
Turkey has become a hub for prediction markets, largely driven by the population’s high adoption of crypto. 18 While the country has strict gambling laws, the government has historically focused more on regulating crypto exchanges than individual prediction market users. In 2025, Turkey emerged with one of the largest user bases for decentralized prediction markets. Users trade using stablecoins bypassing local banking restrictions.
iv. Ukraine & Russia
Before 2022, Ukraine was in the process of liberalizing its gambling laws. However, under martial law and recent pivots toward tighter financial controls, many unlicensed international platforms have been restricted to prevent capital flight. The country has earmarked growth in the gaming sector as part of its recovery in a post-war period but how open this will be remains to be seen while the conflict persists Prediction markets (especially those predicting political outcomes) are strictly prohibited in Russia as are online casinos and some other forms of gambling. The government blocks access to these sites via its communications regulator, Roskomnadzor, and using them can carry significant legal risks for residents. A recent attempt by the Russian Finance Minister to legalize online casinos as a way to boost state revenue suggests they are very alive to leakage of tax revenues offshore. 19
PHIL SAVAGE Head of publications and European Affairs, IMGL For information contact phil@IMGL.org
18 https://practiceguides.chambers.com/practice-guides/blockchain-2025/turkey/trends-and-developments 19 https://igamingbusiness.com/gaming/online-casino/russian-finance-ministry-asks-putin-to-legalise-igaming/
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IMGL MAGAZINE | JUNE 2026
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