MARKET REPORT
Market Perspective The 2024 crop year began with mixed results. Shipments fell short of expectations due to softer demand at the end of the 2023 crop year. Buyers approached the new season with caution, anticipating potential price pressure as harvest commenced. Unlike last year, when the industry faced significant carry-in pressure, this year does not have the same burden. Despite the subdued demand, prices have remained stable with no signs of decline. As buyers begin to cover upcoming demand and replenish inventory, prices are expected to stay supported, particularly as regions prepare for the holiday season. As the harvest progresses, the industry will continue to assess crop quality and supply potential. The total supply outlook will remain uncertain until more clarity is gained on the carry-in figures. year. Although industry commitments are down by 2%, destination inventories are lighter than last season. Given the recent increase in demand for prompt shipments, the industry is anticipated to close this gap and regain the lost ground. The carry-in figure was the most notable surprise of this position report. The carry-out from July’s position report was adjusted with an actual loss and exempt percentage of 2.1%. This put the carry-in at 503 million pounds, which is significantly higher than the industry was expecting due to the lower 2023 crop quality, which had an average of 4.2% of rejects. CROP Crop receipts for the year began at 290.1 million pounds, reflecting a 314% increase compared to the previous crop year, which experienced a delayed harvest by 2-3 weeks. Recent concerns have emerged regarding lower yields from the southern region of the Valley, leading many in the industry to doubt the feasibility of a 3.0- billion-pound crop. Some are even speculating that the final yield could fall below 2.8 billion pounds. Consequently, California packers are adopting a cautious stance, limiting offers until there is greater clarity on the new crop’s potential.
Laura Gerhard, Vice President of Ingredients and International Branded, Blue Diamond Growers
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