the rennie review - September 2019

data points, trends, & a market on the mend .

With year-over-year sales rising in both July and August, and arguably the best economic fundamentals in all of Canada, signs are pointing to a rebounding housing market in Greater Vancouver.

(including rebounding sales, a slowdown in inventory expansion, and a plateauing of prices) has already begun to turn a corner. Last month, in reference to the July sales bump, we noted that one data point does not make a trend. With August revealing a second sales bump, it begs the question: do two months of increasing sales make a trend? While the answer to this may depend on who you ask, we can all agree that it’s the third and fourth points that will ultimately shed light on the trajectory of the developing trend (is it linear? parabolic? exponential?). For this reason, and because many would- be buyers re-emerge from their summer hiatus in September, we’ll be keeping a keen eye on the evolution of the region’s housing market through the balance of this month with a view to projecting how 2019 is likely to play out for buyers and sellers throughout the region.

It’s been a fascinating couple of months for real estate market watchers in the Vancouver region, as the increase in demand that we saw at the beginning of the summer holidays continued through to their end. More specifically, after sales increased by 19% on a year-over-year basis in July, they were up by 15% in August (again, compared to last year). This is noteworthy for two reasons. First, these back-to-back increases were the region’s first year-over-year increases in 18 months. As we’ve been noting since the start of 2019, the downward pressure on sales that originated from both the slew of national-to-local demand-suppressing policies and from buyers’ price fatigue would eventually abate in the face of continued demographic and economic growth. Add to that the fact that per capita sales activity has been significantly below

what would be considered typical for this market, and it’s clear that the stage had already been set for a change in market trajectory. Secondly, economic conditions are such that Canada (which just registered 3.7% annual growth in GDP, the highest among G7 nations), and more specifically the Vancouver region, each resemble an oasis in a world increasingly beset by political turmoil, conflict, and uncertainty. In Greater Vancouver, the past year has seen employment grow by 6.5% (second-fastest among metros in Canada; Calgary was tops, at 6.6%); the unemployment rate fall to its theoretical floor (4.0%); and median weekly wages increase by 6.0%--three times the national average and twice as fast as regional inflation. As we look ahead, all of this creates a solid foundation for a housing market that by almost all measures

Current as of September 3, 2019. All data from the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley. The information set out herein (the “Information”) is intended for informational purposes only. RAR & RMS has not verified the information and does not represent, warrant or guarantee theaccuracy,correctnessandcompletenessof the information.RAR&RMSdoesnotassumeany responsibilityor liabilityofanykind inconnectionwith the informationand the recipient’s relianceupon the information.The recipientof the information should take stepsas the recipientmaydeemnecessary toverify the informationprior toplacinganyrelianceupon the information.The informationmaychangeandanypropertydescribed in the informationmaybewithdrawn from themarketatany timewithoutnoticeorobligation to therecipient fromRAR&RMS. 3

Made with FlippingBook - professional solution for displaying marketing and sales documents online