vancouver ’ s market momentum goes backwards in march March sales activity unwound some of the momentum from the first two months of the year. While sales may be well-below their long-run averages, conditions continued to favour sellers, especially for lower-priced homes.
continued to favour sellers (an MOI <5 is considered a sellers’ market) and segments of the market remain considerably tight, namely townhomes with an MOI of 2.6 and condos at 3.7. Supply-demand dynamics for lower-priced homes were even tighter: detached homes less than $1.5 million (MOI of 3.7 versus 5.9 for all detached homes), townhomes less than $1 million (2.3), and condos less than $800,000 (3.1). Median sold prices across home types were up between 6-10% year-over-year across the region, a sign of still tight supply and demand dynamics. The rate cut that buyers were hoping for did not show up at the April 10th Bank of Canada decision. In response to questions about the potential of a June rate cut, governor Tiff Macklem said it is “within the realm of possibilities” and that “we are seeing what we need to see but we need to see it for longer to be confident that progress toward price stability will be sustained.” Time will tell.
The sales momentum witnessed through the first two months of 2024 in the Vancouver region was essentially turned on its head in March. As we noted in past editions of the rennie review 2024 started off much differently than 2023 with sales up 45% year-over-year in January and 20% in February, but that flipped to a 9% decline in March. Perhaps it was some late season powder on the ski hills or spring break vacations and the appeal of warmer weather down south that peeled attention away from the housing market. More likely than not though it was restraint on the part of buyers in anticipation of rate cuts by the Bank of Canada (or at least some firmer guidance on when they might be coming). MLS sales for the region were 3,616 in March, 32% below the past 10-year average for the month (5,312). Most notably, sales of detached homes were down 49% relative to their long-run average. It’s all the more
noteworthy when considering that record population growth in recent years means that below average sales on an absolute basis is even more dramatic from a per-capita perspective. Not to spell too much from a single month of activity (or lack thereof), total sales through Q1 was still up by 11% year-over-year. Contrary to sales, inventory of 15,110 in March was above its past-decade March average, albeit marginally at 4%. This was the highest level for March inventory since before the pandemic (18,230 listings in March 2019). This rising inventory and slumping sales dynamic has helped to relieve some tightness in the market with 4.2 months-of-inventory (MOI) in March, quite the contrast to the same month in each of the past three years where MOIs were 2.9, 1.7, and 1.5 respectively.
That said, the market on the whole
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