JOB GROWTH, INCOME RISE AND YOUNG TALENT FUEL OKLAHOMA CITY’S ECONOMIC MOMENTUM IN 2024
Increases are also contemplated in the forecast for population and income. Population growth is predicted to remain strong, with 1.2% growth this year. Per capita income is expected to grow by 4.7% this year to more than $66,000. Job growth is also expected this year, with an increase of nearly 14,000 jobs, being led by growth in health services and the trade sector. These two sectors will represent more than half of the expected gain in private payrolls. A predicted weakening of consumer spending will lead to flat employment in leisure and hospitality. Overall job growth in Oklahoma City has outpaced national growth since 2010. Nonfarm earnings have also been stronger than the U.S. average, with earnings averaging 4.6% a year, compared to 3.9% nationwide. The forecast also recognized a decrease in job postings in the area – data that can be viewed as a proxy for future hiring intentions. The total number of job postings in December 2023 for the Oklahoma City metro was down by 19% compared to December 2022. Nationally, that number was down 31%, showing relative strength of the Oklahoma City metro. Two alternative forecast models show a more modest growth expectation of between 0.3% and 0.7%, reflecting the local economy’s vulnerability to national and global uncertainties. A high concentration of young people in the metro should provide labor pool support for years to come. Quality of life improvement and job opportunities are critical to keeping this talent in the market. A LOOK BACK AT 2023 Oklahoma City’s metro economy experienced year- over-year nonfarm job growth of 2.4% or a gain of 17,000 jobs. The largest percentage of growth was in education and health (6%), leisure and hospitality (4.8%), construction (3.2%), manufacturing (2.7%), government (2%), and mining/oil and gas (2%). Unemployment for the year was 2.9%, the fourth lowest rate since 1990.
The momentum of a rebounding economy and the effects of pandemic-era supplemental income streams set the stage for 2024, according to an economic outlook report released by the Greater Oklahoma City Chamber. The annual study was completed by Russell Evans, partner and chief economist for Thorberg Collective, and Eric Long, research economist for the Chamber. The forecast suggests that job growth in Oklahoma City will slow from its 2.4% pace of 2023 to 2% in the coming year. The study also noted the rise in self- employment in the area, as the economy becomes more entrepreneurial.
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