1. A quick transition to mobile payments, and 2. People staying with what’s “convenient” on their phones – that is, staying within one “ecosystem.” Before I get too deep into that, let’s back up... What’s it like to pay with your phone instead of cash or a credit card? EXACTLYWHAT IT’S LIKE TO PAYWITH YOUR PHONE I paid for lunch at Panera Bread a few weeks back... with my phone. Instead of pulling out a credit card or cash after I ordered, I simply swiped my phone over the credit-card reader. Boom. Done. That’s it. It’s a bit anticlimactic, really... There’s no “thrill” to it... You’re already holding your phone out... And then your phone says you paid, and the receipt appears on your screen. That’s it. While we can't know exactly how it will play out here in the U.S., we do have the luxury of a pretty good blueprint... It's what's happened in China over the past three years.
This will take off. The traditional credit card is done for. I don’t mean completely gone, of course. Here’s what I mean... In about five years, I believe, nearly everyone will prefer paying with their phone. I realize that’s hard to believe, when basically nobody in America is doing this now. But they will. You might wonder what gives me such strong conviction that basically all of us will adopt this – and we will do it quickly. The answer is simple: My trip to China last summer proved it to me 100%. It sounds crazy to say that I saw the future in China. But I did. The Chinese people are about three years ahead of us in adopting this technology. In China’s big cities, I saw two things: 1. Everyone prefers paying with their phone. They HATE using cash, and traditional credit cards are basically irrelevant. 2. For convenience, most people prefer staying within one “app,” or one “ecosystem.” (I will explain more about this idea in a minute.) These are the two big ideas. This is what I expect will be true in America as well. While we can’t know exactly how it will play out here in the U.S., we do have the luxury of a pretty good blueprint... It’s what’s happened in China over the past three years. The basics of what we’ll see are:
American Consequences | 61
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