2018 Midyear Market Outlook

2018 MIDYEAR MARKET OUTLOOK

MARKET SUMMARY  The current expansion should last well into 2019 and beyond.  The U.S. labor market is at nearly full employment with payrolls rising.  Tariff measures by the United States are provoking retaliations by trading partners.  The Federal Reserve has raised the Fed funds rate twice in the first six months, with two more hikes anticipated by year’s end.  Equity valuation levels are approaching lofty levels, but still below the all-time highs set in the 1990s.

MIDYEAR NUMBERS 3.0% 2018 U.S. GDP GROWTH

FORECAST 4.9% S&P 500 Y TD 3.8% 2018 MAY UNEMPLOYMENT 2.92% 10-YEAR U.S. TREASURY YIELD * -1.94% BLOOMBERG BARCLAYS AGGREGATE BOND INDEX Y TD RETURN * -0.49% BLOOMBERG BARCLAYS MUNICIPAL BOND INDEX Y TD RETURN *

*AS OF 6/15/18

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