October 2025

FOOD • WINE • HARVEST

Inside: 15 Get busy task masking! 30 Wine Country seeks fountain of youth 38 Curse of the Michelin star? 44 WID: Wine Improvement Discussion 58 Kyle Altomare sparkles at Gloria Ferrer Def Leppard’s Rick Allen is drumming up support for North Bay first responders Rock of Ages

Food, Wine and Harvest Issue 2025

$4.95

Recovery Starts Here

Dr. Sushma D. Taylor Recovery Center (SDTRC)

Guided by Science, Strengthened by Partnership, Grounded in Caring T he Dr. Sushma D. Taylor Recovery Center (SDTRC) is Sonoma County’s newest adult male-only residential treatment facility, designed to provide comprehensive, trauma-informed services for individuals with substance use disorders (SUD), including those with co-occurring mild to moderate mental health conditions. “Under the leadership of CP-DAAC, a major facility remodel—funded through DHCS’s Behavioral Health Continuum Infrastructure Program (BHCIP)—was completed last year, with program services initiated on December 1. SDTRC now offers 50 licensed treatment beds and, in August 2025, launched a 10-bed, MAT-integrated withdrawal management (detox) unit staffed by 24/7 licensed nursing staff under the supervision of CP-DAAC’s medical director, an addiction-certified physician. To ensure the highest standards of care, admissions are currently being phased as we expand our medical and clinical staffing capabilities. Please contact us for current availability or waitlist options.”. In addition to ASAM Levels 3.1, 3.2 and 3.5 residential care, SDTRC is licensed to provide Incidental Medical Services (IMS) and dual- diagnosis support for individuals managing both SUD and mental health conditions. Treatment includes individual and group counseling, psychiatric and medication support, peer recovery services, and personalized discharge planning to ensure continuity of care. The program serves predominantly Medi-Cal recipients and accepts referrals from a wide range of partner agencies and systems, including Treatment Alternatives for Safe Communities (TASC), the AB 109 Post-Release Community Supervision (PRCS) program, Drug Court, Buckelew Programs’ Orenda Detox Center, and self-referred individuals seeking structured residential support. “At the Dr. Sushma D. Taylor Recovery Center, we believe healing

begins with welcome and respect. Our adult male residential and upcoming detox program are anchored in the best of science

and compassionate care— integrating evidence-based treatments, dual-diagnosis support, and incidental medical services. We work hand in hand with local agencies— Sonoma County

Christopher Geiger, Regional Vice President (A) CP-DAAC

Department of Health Services – Behavioral Health Division, TASC, AB 109/PRCS, Drug Court, Orenda Center, and more—to ensure smooth entry and exit pathways. Our staff are continuously growing through training, trauma-informed care, and a shared culture of caring, so that every man who walks through our doors finds both expert care and genuine support.” — Christopher Geiger, Regional Vice President (A) CP-DAAC

Operated by: CP-DAAC | www.daacinfo.org Detox Unit Opening: NOW OPEN! Licensed Capacity: 50 beds (10 detox) Client Population: Adult men, Medi-Cal eligible, justice-and community-referred

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October 2025 • Volume 50 • Number 10 CONTENTS

50 YEARS OF BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE

22

LEAD STORY 22 Comin’ Under Fire Jason Walsh

FEATURE STORIES 30 Tapping the Next Generation of Wine Drinkers Jessica Zimmer Wine industry needs to get younger, hipper 38 Michelin Stars: A Blessing or a Curse? Mallorie Deming The renowned guide’s notoriety can be hard on restaurants, study shows 44 WID: Wine Improvement Discussion Janis Mara With wine ‘district’ on pause, industry looks for fresh ideas

Def Leppard’s Rick Allen drums up support for first responders in the North Bay

WORK/LIFE 15 Task Masking 16 Wine in Sports

October 2025

NorthBaybiz 5

48

21

53

50

DEPARTMENTS 12 The 707

COLUMNS 11

Editor's Note Jason Walsh A moment of resilience

The latest news from Sonoma and Napa counties

13

18

The 415 The latest news from Marin County

Econ 101 Robert Eyler The importance of accurate labor market data

17

21

The Month In Numbers A look at the key figures shaping life in the North Bay

Only In Marin Bill Meagher Tariffs a part of the furniture at RH Napa Insider Christina Julian Changing seasons in wine country Tech Talk Michael E. Duffy A look at the latest tech innovations

48

37

Great Tastes Alexandra Russell Meadowcroft Wines in Sonoma Dine Wise Jason Walsh Songbird Parlour in Glen Ellen What’s Happening Upcoming North Bay events Biz Scene Burning Ham in Penngrove

50

43

53

52

Vine Wise Adam Lee Have you ever seen the rain?

57

58

Beyond the Boardroom Rosie Padilla Kyle Altomare, winemaker at Gloria Ferrer Caves & Vineyard

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/northbaybiz

@northbaybiz

NorthBay biz (ISSN No. 1542-3549: USPS 097-770) is owned and published monthly (plus three bonus issues annually) by North Bay Media Group, LLC. Editorial offices are at 3392 Mendocino Ave., Santa Rosa, CA 95403 USA: (707) 528-4434. Sub- scription price is $35 per year. Periodicals Postage Paid at Santa Rosa, CA 95402 and at additional mailing offices. Copyright 2022, NorthBay biz. Reproduction of this issue in whole or in part is strictly forbidden without written permission by the publisher. POSTMASTER: Send address changes to NorthBay biz, 3392 Mendocino Ave., Santa Rosa, CA 95403 USA.

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October 2025

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Jason Walsh

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Contributing Editor

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Design Director

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Writers Janis Mara Jason Walsh Jessica Zimmer Mallorie Deming Rosie Padilla Columnists Adam Lee Alexandra Russell Bill Meagher Christina Julian Jason Walsh Michael E. Duffy Robert Eyler

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October 2025

Books Are Portable Magic Simpson Sheet Metal is proud to be a sponsor of Read On Sonoma

Read on Sonoma!

Read On Sonoma had our most successful school year yet, with over 1,460 students participating in 7 schools!

We are expanding to twelve schools and 3,300 children. Our students read more than 630 million words — That’s 49,180 books, or 34 books per student! Keep up the great work! — Barbie Simpson, Owner and President

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Celebrating more than 40 years as a family owned business. Our team is here to meet all of your HVAC needs.

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Editor's Note

Banging the drum for resiliency

By Jason Walsh

I can’t recall much about New Year’s Day 1985, but one moment is etched in my memory: I was in my childhood bedroom in Marin County that afternoon listening to the radio and cataloging my burgeoning cassette tape collection when an announcement

is the stuff of legend (and the topic of this month’s lead feature on p. 22)—but also an inspiring tail of resiliency and life-saving action by first responders. Rohnert Park is a far cry from Dronfield, UK, the small town in Derbyshire where Allen grew up—but his incredible journey brings him to the “friendly city” Nov. 1, when he and his partner Lauren Monroe will be keynote speakers at the annual gala for First Responders Resiliency Inc.,

Doxxxxxxxxxx

came on: The drummer from my favorite band, Def Leppard, was involved in a devastating car crash.

Eighties music tech was awesome!

the nonprofit founded in 2018 by Susan Farren to foster and promote the physical and mental health of first responders. Among professions, first responders have significantly higher rates of substance abuse, divorce and chronic illness than the general population. They’re even more likely to die by suicide than in the line of duty. Allen and Monroe in 2001 launched the Raven Drum Foundation, a nonprofit dedicated to the healing of first responders and veterans struggling with post-traumatic stress through the use of music, drumming, breathwork, guided visualization and other proven techniques. When first responders saved Allen that day in 1984, they paved his path for a lifetime of success behind the drum kit. Now he’s using that drumming to give first responders happier, healthier, more hopeful lives. Learn more about Raven Drum at ravendrumfoundation.org . For information on First Responders Resiliency, Inc. and its Nov. 1 gala, check out resiliency1st.org . g

Rick Allen was on a New Year’s Eve drive with his girlfriend through the English countryside when an attempt to pass an aggressive driver ended in tragedy: a terrifying crash that severed Allen’s left arm. The news report, from SF station 97.3 KRQR “The Rocker,” lasted about 15 seconds then the station played “Bringin’ On the Heartbreak” in tribute. I was 12. Under circumstances that would’ve crushed the spirit of most anyone—let alone a drummer in a hard-driving rock band—Allen refused to give up. And Def Leppard refused to give up on him. Re-learning to play drums with just his right arm and his feet, Allen and the band didn’t miss a beat, continuing on to remain one of the biggest acts of that decade. Here we are a few years later—Rick Allen is still touring with Def Lep; 97.3 The Rocker is a pop station called “Alice” that my daughter listens to on the drive to school, and at some point in the early 2000s Mom sent that tape collection to slowly degrade over the course of millennia in the nearby landfill. That Allen continued on to keep the beat throughout the band’s glory years

October 2025

NorthBaybiz 11

The 707

County ag production drops, as demand lowers for wine, cannabis Sonoma County farm production fell off the haystack in 2024—with its total value down 9.3%. In total, the county’s agricultural production reached a value of $857.6 million last year, according to the annual Crop Report released this week by the Sonoma County Department of Agriculture/Weights & Measures. In 2023, the value reached over $945 million. The annual Crop Report provides an overview of the county’s top commodities, industry trends and highlights of departmental work in pest management, land stewardship, and weights and measures. First compiled in 1928, county officials use it as a resource for economic development, tourism, financing and historical analysis. Despite the dip in overall production value, county Board of Supervisors Chair Lynda Hopkins said the farming community “continues to demonstrate resilience in the face of challenges, from market fluctuations to disease outbreaks.” Winegrapes remained Sonoma County’s leading commodity with a value of $626.5 million, a 12.6% decrease from 2023. Harvested tonnage fell 12.2% to 211,511.6 tons, due largely to a downtick in demand, the report said. Poultry products, meanwhile, suffered heavily from 2024’s wide-reaching outbreak of bird flu, with production value declining nearly 49% due to the culling of nearly a million birds in an effort to stem the outbreak. However, the sharpest agricultural decline was felt in the cannabis industry, with production value dropping nearly 53% year over year—from $25.7 million in 2023 to $12.2 million in 2024. Local commodities that enjoyed an increase were led by dairy, as milk production climbed 37.4%, with organic milk up nearly 50%. Also on the rise was apples, whose overall production increased in value by 21% thanks to improved tonnage and favorable late- season prices, according to the report.

The complete 2024 Sonoma County Crop Report is available at sonomacounty.gov. — JW

Former ASMG accountant sentenced for embezzlement Tina Cabudoy, a former employee of Amaturo Sonoma Media Group in Santa Rosa, was sentenced this week to five years and four months in prison for embezzling nearly $200,000 while serving as ASMG’s business accountant from July 2023 to March 2024. ASMG owns and operates several popular North Bay radio stations, and also publishes NorthBay biz magazine. According to the Sonoma County District Attorney’s Office, Cabudoy, who has had residences in Santa Rosa and the San Jose, was ordered by Sonoma County Judge Troye Shaffer to pay restitution of $179,306. The Sonoma County DA began investigating Cabudoy following her March 2024 arrest in San Mateo County for allegedly embezzling around $300,000 from a San Carlos tech company where she had worked prior to ASMG. The investigation discovered that Cabudoy was using her employer’s credit card for personal expenses, including an extravagant birthday party in San Franciso. She also wrote business checks to herself, the DA said. In July, Cabudoy pleaded no contest to grand theft. The prison term of 5 years and 4 months includes the prior sentence from San Mateo County.— JW

Copperfield’s Bookstore building in Sebastopol for sale Copperfield’s Books flagship Sebastopol store sent out an SOS last week, announcing the potential sale of the building it leases at 138 N. Main St. could jeopardize its ability to operate at that location. According to bookstore management, its current lease arrangement has allowed the independent bookstore to remain viable in a challenging environment for brick-and-mortar retail shops. The business absorbed a 10% rent increase this year and “a new building owner could dramatically compound this situation by either terminating the lease or raising the rent to a level that would not be sustainable.” Copperfield’s was launched in Sebastopol by co-owners Paul Jaffe and Barney Brown in 1981. Jaffe says a new building owner could line up a new tenant for the space or raise the rent to an unsustainable level for the independent bookstore. “We can't subsist in doing business as usual, paying the kind of rent that market rates would demand,” Jaffe said in a statement. Jaffe said his team is exploring such options as finding a nonprofit entity to purchase the building and preserve the bookstore's presence downtown, or working with the city on designating the bookstore a “legacy” business, which may qualify for a grant, something Copperfield’s is currently exploring with the City of Petaluma for another of its stores. Copperfield’s opened in 1981 in a 750-square-foot storefront next door to its current location. Today Copperfield’s has nine locations throughout Sonoma, Marin and Napa counties. For more information, visit copperfieldsbooks.com .— JW

12 NorthBaybiz

October 2025

The 415

Fireman’s Fund buildings face wrecking ball The Fireman’s Fund campus in Novato—the one-time home of one of the largest employers in Marin—is being razed. The wrecking balls are expected to begin swinging at the 44-acre San Marin Drive parcel this autumn. The property, owned by San Marin Owner LLC, is planned for development into 1,300 residences, a key component in Novato reaching its state-mandated housing goals as part of its 2024 general plan update. Fireman’s Fund had its base of operations at the site from 1992 to 2015, when parent company Allianz financial services moved employees to Petaluma. The site has been vacant for a decade. The demolition is expected to take several months. City officials said crews will be at work weekdays from 7 a.m. to 6 p.m.; and Saturdays from 10 a.m. to 5 p.m.— JW

North Bay Children’s Center’s $12.5M campus opens in Novato The North Bay Children’s Center celebrated the opening of its state-of-the-art early learning campus and headquarters in Novato last month. The 20,000-square-foot facility doubles the nonprofit’s childcare capacity, replacing its aging building at 932 C St. in the Hamilton neighborhood. Children’s Center staff, donors and other supporters gathered at a ribbon-cutting ceremony Aug. 27; California First Partner Jennifer Siebel Newsom gave the keynote address before attendees toured the center’s new Innovative Learning Lab and its Garden of Eatin,’ and then enjoyed a cooking demonstration by Curtis Aiken, NBCC’s chef-in-residence. In addition to providing early childhood education and care for primarily lower-income working families, the campus will serve as headquarters for the 40-year-old nonprofit, which operates five locations in Novato, as well as nine across Sonoma County. The Hamilton facility will serve about 160 children ages 6 weeks to 4 years old; all told, NBCC serves over 700 kids throughout the North Bay. Construction on the nearly decade-long $12.5 million project is 90% complete; NBCC is in the process of raising a final $750,000 to close its capital campaign. NBCC was founded in 1986 by Susan Gilmore, who still serves as CEO. Nearly 75% of its families live below the poverty line, according to NBCC. The nonprofit also provides parenting support, art therapy and trauma-informed services with the goal of ensuring kids are kindergarten ready.— JW

State Democratic leader John Burton dies at 92 John Burton, who represented Marin and San Francisco counties for eight years in Congress, died Sept. 7. He was 92. Burton was one of California’s most influential state representatives, preceding and following his years in the House of Representatives with tenures in the state Assembly, state Senate and chair of the California Democratic Party. Known both for his salty demeanor and as a steadfast champion of underserved populations, Burton— together with his late brother Phil who died in 1983—was credited with fueling the “Burton machine,” which dominated state politics through a coalition of support from unions, the gay community, Asian Americans and Black churches, among other marginalized voting blocks which until then hadn’t been represented effectively. From his first election as a state Assemblymember representing San Francisco in 1965 to his stepping down as chair of the state Dems in 2017, Burton’s influence in California spanned more than 50 years.— JW

October 2025

NorthBaybiz 13

“ NorthBay biz magazine has been a wonderful tool for my business. ”

W hen taking over my family business, I did not realize at the time what a great role the NorthBay biz Magazine would have through the upcoming months and years. The magazine, and even more so, the employees of the magazine, have played an intricate role in the progression of our business. The magazine is such an amazing tool in keeping the community apprised in the ongoings of our business as we grow and serve our community. It began with the passing of my dad, Bill Simpson, the founder of Simpson Sheet Metal. The magazine played such a wonderful role in paying tribute to the him. Moving forward, I had the opportunity to be certified as a woman- owned business, as well as receiving several awards in the community for the same. This media of keeping the community aware of the wonderful ongoings of our business has been wonderful. Over time, and through the growth of our business, we now find ourselves here at Simpson Sheet Metal in a blessed position of being able to give back to our community. Alongside NorthBay

biz, Lawrence Amaturo, Guy Fieri and others, we are able to contribute to the literacy program here in Sonoma County. The magazine and the outreach pouring into this program are making a difference in the lives of children in the community. NorthBay biz magazine has been a wonderful tool for my business to keep others informed on our growth

and role in Sonoma County and again, even more so, we have built incredible relationships

with the Amaturo team. For this we are thankful! Barbie Simpson

Helping grow your business isn’t just something we do... it’s all we do! For advertising and marketing information, call us at 707.548-8216

Work Life Task masking

Working hard… or hardly working? Employees are ‘busy’ task masking these days, say experts

By Jason Walsh

A re the constant sounds of papers shuffling and keyboard tapping You may have a task-masker on your hands. Task masking is a term gaining traction in office circles to describe employees who appear busy, but rarely complete any meaningful work. Think of the guy who’s always running to a meeting that no one else seems scheduled to attend, or the girl who clearly wants to be seen with a laptop under her arm—are they corporate go-getters, or task maskers? emanating from the cubicle of an office colleague who doesn’t seem to produce much of value at your company? Workplace watchdogs believe several reasons are at play in the growing phenomenon. From return-to-office mandates for remote workers unaccustomed to staying productive all day to employees whose goals and priorities haven’t been clearly defined by management, the fear of being seen as unproductive has been replaced by merely “appearing” productive. Jeffrey Ditzell, a workplace psychiatrist, described it to Investopedia as a common trap where the “appearance of effort” is confused with actual value. But Ditzell doesn’t see

it as workers intentionally shirking their responsibilities—more a sign of fear or burnout. “It's often driven by fear,” he explained on the finance website. “[Fear] of failing, making mistakes, being judged by peers or supervisors, [or] feeling like [a] fraud.” Instead of taking on challenging, high-impact work, Ditzell says, the task masker clings to low- stakes tasks because they provide a sense of safety and superficial accomplishment. According to Amanda Augustine of career. io, a workplace site credited with coining the term, the rise in task masking fits in line with the general message companies conveyed when mandating return-to-office policies: Seeing people working equates to better productivity. Jenni Field, CEO of Redefining Communications, however, is less charitable. Instead of assigning responsibility to poor company management, she chalks task masking as little more than a new name for an old problem: lazy work ethic. “Disengagement and inefficiency can happen anywhere, whether in an office or

working remotely,” Field told Fortune magazine. “If people do not want to work, they won’t.” The problem with task masking, of course, is that’s it’s unsustainable in the long term. Sooner rather than later, managers will unmask a person’s general lack of results. And once that happens, the new task might be finding a new job.

4 signs you might be a task masker

• You’re constantly "busy" but can't cite recent accomplishments • You dread check-ins with your supervisor because there's nothing to show • You plan your day around being seen, not delivering results • You feel anxious at work—driven by the pressure to look busy and the fear of being “found out.” Source: Investopedia

October 2025

NorthBaybiz 15

Work Life Wine

North Bay wine pouring for local pro teams

Valkyries, Giants offer a ‘taste’ of victory

S ports can be sweaty, grimy, glass of chilled sauvignon blanc. What was once the sole realm of the ice-cold beer contingent, the professional sports world the past few years has been embracing wine country—partnering with like-minded labels in official sponsorships linking the thrills of victory and agonies of defeat with a meaty zin or zesty Napa cab. sometimes even bloody. And nothing washes all that down quite like a Last month, the San Francisco Giants announced a partnership with Sonoma County Winegrowers in the new Giants Wine Club, in which members enjoy three releases per year, including six bottles from six different Sonoma County wineries chosen by the Giants’ new master sommelier. The team describes it as part of a commitment to providing “nothing like it” experiences. Perhaps a touch of Carneros char had something to do with the Giants’ late-season surge toward a wild-card playoff spot—definitely a nothing-like-it experience for fans the past several seasons. Meanwhile, down the street at Chase Center, the Golden State Valkyries in May announced its official wine partnership with Windsor’s La Crema, where the women- led winery matched well with the WNBA’s newest expansion franchise. Then in June, Healdsburg’s J Vineyards became the Valkyries’ sparkling wine sponsor, with the winery seeking to attach its brand to the By Jason Walsh

the Nuggets, Magic, Suns, Pacers and Kings. Sonoma County Winegrowers, meanwhile, partnered with the Houston Rockets in 2023. Part of the connection stems from the plethora of professional athletes delving into wine. Current and former NBA athletes with labels include Carmelo Anthony, Dwyane Wade, CJ McCollum, Yao Ming and James Harden. Former Warriors favorite (now with the Dallas Mavs) Klay Thompson launched the Diamond & Key label in 2022. Baseball is close behind with former Giants Rich Aurilia, Dave Roberts and manager Dusty Baker starting their own labels. And what about

red-hot team (the first WNBA expansion team to earn a playoff berth in its inaugural season), while “supporting J Vineyards winemaker Nicole Hitchcock and WNBA legend Sue Bird celebrate the inaugural season of the Golden State Valkyries. [Photo from jwine.com ]

the NFL? Well, America’s most popular pro sports league is staying true to its more blue-collar roots and forgoing North Bay wine country in favor

women, celebrating empowerment and championing equality and inclusion” the winery said in an announcement of the partnership. But these are just the latest franchises to jump on the wine wagon. Kendall-Jackson in 2024 partnered with the NBA to open a wine bar at the Warriors’ Golden 1 Center, along with other in-venue locations with

of a partnership with Modesto-based E&J Gallo, offering its bargain Barefoot label, which the league thinks will “make wine more approachable.” Approachable, perhaps. But affordable? At the 2025 Super Bowl, a glass of Barefoot ran attendees $15—about twice as much as a bottle of Barefoot costs at the grocery store.

16 NorthBaybiz

October 2025

The Month In Numbers A look at the key figures shaping life in the North Bay

Sonoma County

See Spot run!

91% Comprehension level of students enrolled in Read On, Sonoma—a literacy program which works in partnership with local school districts—in the 2023-24 school year, an increase in 18% from when the program launched in 2022 .

120% Increase in Sonoma County students enrolled in Read On Sonoma this school year over last.

380,135 Number of words per year read by third-grade Read On, Sonoma participants—nearly two and a half times the national average

41% Portion of Sonoma County third graders who met state literacy standards in 2023-24 school year. The state average is 43%. Source: Read On, Sonoma

Napa County

No such thing as a free lunch

$78.80 Amount Kirkpatrick claimed at the time her 9-year-old son had given the school district out of his own pocket to cover outstanding debts of families enrolled in the lunch program. The money was actually raised by others through online fundraising services. The story of her son’s alleged generosity gained national attention, resulting in gifts, cash prizes and tickets to the Super Bowl. Source: Napa Police Department, Napa Valley Register $10k Estimated amount Kylie Jean Kirkpatrick allegedly fraudulently raised in 2019 to fund Napa Valley Unified School District’s school lunch program. None of the gifts or monetary contributions were ever passed along to the lunch program, leading to her arrest on March 2020. Kirkpatrick on Sept. 17 2025 accepted a diversion agreement in Napa County Superior Court, which may mean she avoids jail time.

Marin County

$4.65 million Sundance into the sunset

Purchase price in 2024 for Robert Redford’s Tiburon home. The legendary actor and his wife Sibylle Szaggar relocated to Santa Fe, New Mexico following the death of Redford’s son, James, a longtime Fairfax resident.

4 Years Redford lived in Tiburon, where he was known to walk nearby trails, enjoy local restaurants and as an overall unassuming and friendly neighbor. Redford died Sept. 16; he was 89.

October 2025

NorthBaybiz 17

ECON 101

Understanding Labor Market Data Why the U.S. maintaining accurate jobs reports is vital for the global economy

By Robert Eyler R ecessions are rare economic events—economies strive to grow naturally. Economies achieve this through innovation, investment and partnership with the government which serves as a regulator and additional investor in support infrastructure, revenue-generating contracts and legal frameworks such as patent protection. Private-sector investment, as a key ingredient in economic growth, generally bets on macroeconomic success as the context for industry or business growth. For equity markets, where investors make such bets of all sizes, accurate measures of macroeconomic conditions are crucial to how financial markets function in terms of available information and the meaning of that information to firm profitability. Recessions are generally declared due to eroding labor market conditions and expectations in trend. For most laypeople, the unemployment rate is a key statistic to watch due to its

ease of understanding and dynamics. When unemployment rises sharply, a recession may be nearer, while a decline reduces negative pressure. Unemployment, however, is generally considered a “coincident” indicator. When unemployment changes, the tide has already shifted in one way or another on macroeconomic conditions. The monthly “jobs report” that comes from the federal

Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) starts with changes in “non- farm” employment levels. That signal comes in many forms after

Original and Revised Estimates, Non-Farm Workers (Thousands of Workers), July 2024 to June 2025, United States. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesnaicsrev.htm

18 NorthBaybiz

October 2025

seasonal adjustments, but the focus is generally on new net hires from one month to the next. Month-on-month job growth is seen as a sign of continued confidence in increasing revenues that pay for more workers and leave some room for profits after other expenses are paid. These data initially come from household surveys on job gains or losses and are then revised based on a core survey known as the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey, which collects data from thousands of businesses and government agencies. CES survey respondents submit employment data, including hours worked and wages/salaries, for all paid workers to the BLS from their payroll records. Bureau of Labor Statistics economists then use models to finalize estimates, and the jobs report is created. When the June 2025 numbers were released in July, growth continued. However, as more complete payroll data come in and monthly and quarterly numbers are prepared (for what is ultimately the final statement on labor data, called the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages or QCEW), revisions are made. If you visit the graphic source website, you will see that there are monthly revisions of various magnitudes, occurring in both directions, with more or fewer workers hired. In the accompanying figure, when the red column is taller than the blue column, the revised labor market outcome suggests that fewer jobs were created than initially estimated. What created controversy in July and August 2025, and may continue to do so as the BLS leadership position is debated and changed, is how politicians may view those numbers versus the qualitative story to tell. The revisions for May and June 2025

were somewhat larger than recent changes and consecutive, but not necessarily out of bounds in terms of percentage changes from historical norms, nor without both strong theoretical and empirical foundations. Suppose the sources, credibility and modifications to these methods were adjusted to consistently provide accurate job numbers, regardless of economic conditions. Unemployment, for example, is a condition affecting the working-age population, not an indicator of employer hiring conditions, as with non- farm payroll data. If more people lose their jobs and go on unemployment, the number of insurance claimants rises while jobs are in demand. The working-age population available for work is in question; economists will wonder where the disconnect may lie. Global financial markets will also get nervous quickly. The United States remains the global leader in data sophistication, accuracy and confidence. We need to closely monitor these data and ensure that the methods and reporting remain consistent and scientific at their core. The last thing the global economy needs is another concern about American economic outcomes. . g

Dr. Robert Eyler is professor of economics at Sonoma State University and president of Economic Forensics and Analytics in Sonoma County.

October 2025

NorthBaybiz 19

Business and lifestyle news for the North Bay.

BUSINESS & NONPROFITS

In good hands

From people to pets, North Bay nonprofits offer support—and reach for solutions

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January 2024

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AI’s touch on health care

Inside: Napa Insider · Ramona Faith Bungalow Kitchen · Pride Mountain Sick Days · For Love or Prenups How artificial intelligence connects with North Bay medicine

February 2024

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THE TOP

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Animal rights or farming traditions? The great stampede over Measure J... Holy cow!

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Only In Marin

Tariffs, tariffs everywhere, kinda. Maybe. By Bill Meagher

L oyal readers of this space—and the seven of you know who you are—realize that while we report on serious matters because business is nothing if not serious, we also seek levity and even laughter in the world of commerce. So, while that thought written on a Post-it hangs off my desk lamp, let’s dive into the world of tariffs and how they may impact Corte Madera’s RH, the company formerly known as Restoration Hardware. To begin with, tariffs are an issue because President Trump decided to wrest trade control from congress by declaring an emergency via the

One factor making tariff impacts difficult to predict is Trump’s tendency to kick the can down the street. The guy behind the Resolute Desk has earned the moniker TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) when it comes to backing up his tough talk. You can almost hear him saying, “We’ll see.” The U.S. courts are the other wildcard. At this writing, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit has affirmed a lower court ruling Trump doesn’t have unlimited authority to impose taxes on imports. That court said in its ruling it expects 47 to run to the Supreme Court for a rescue and it left the tariffs in place for now.

Doxxxxxxxxxx

RH is avoiding supplies from tariff-spiked countries.

Your Marin Moment When consulting giant McKinsey & Co. offers you a report on the house, you sit down and listen—at least, if you’re the city of Mill Valley. This is how officials got some ideas on “urban vitality and the future of mobility.” I won’t quibble with urban vitality, though Mill Valley is nothing if not suburban. When you’re getting a freebie, semantics take a back seat to good manners. Thus, city officials put on the feed bag of knowledge and listened as the wisdom washed over them like steam from a hot tub. This actually took place at the city library, which is one of those things that editors are picky about. Making up things if you’re a journalist is frowned upon. But if you’re the president of the United States, there are no such restrictions which explains dogs and cats getting eaten in Ohio and Trump bringing peace in seven wars. Speaking of making things up, let me give a shoutout to Patrick Heij for his website MarinLately .com. Heij, a writer of humor who is also the son of former SF Chron columnist Adair Lara, blends the Marin state of mind, with the philosophical bent of The Onion , and humor of Andy Borowitz. His imagination produces the stuff of belly laughs while skewering the land of organic milk and small batch honey. Heather Knight of the New York Times recently ID’d Heij as the writer behind MarinLately.com , with his permission. Knight covers SF and the North Bay for the Gray Lady and does a fabulous job. g

International Emergency Powers Act. Trump believes tariffs are money makers for the country, though the cost of those tariffs are often passed directly to consumers. They also injure companies who pay the tariffs on either goods or raw materials. Want more intrigue? The White House has been probing the furniture industry since March with an eye toward increasing tariffs. At the end of August, the White House said the investigation would end in 50 days. Oh, those wheels grind slowly. This brings us to RH, the luxury branding and lifestyle company. In recent years, the company has expanded from couches that run $12k to the hospitality biz with hotels, restaurants and resorts. On the interior side, RH has always sourced most of its products overseas like others in the sector. According to the American Home Furnishings Alliance, the value of furnishings from countries like Vietnam and Malaysia imported to the U.S. totaled $15.4 billion last year. In June, just $450 million in furniture was imported, lowest total in more than 20 years. In a June SEC filing, RH said it would only import 2% of its product from China, a decrease from 16% at the beginning of 2025. It’s also moving some furniture production to North Carolina. In its latest SEC financial filing, RH wrote, “We have taken steps to move our supply chain away from countries with higher tariff rates in favor of other jurisdictions, but these countermeasures may prove to be ineffective and the ability to predict tariff rates in different countries may be difficult as policies may change on short notice.” Left out of that sentence is this key thought, “our current president is batsh-t crazy and his knowledge of economics is an inch deep and a foot wide.” Given RH’s core customer is not clipping coupons and shopping sales at Walmart, increased tariffs that are then passed direct to clients might not have the same impact as for those shopping bedroom sets at Ikea.

Meagher is a contributing editor at NorthBay biz and pens this column each month. He’s also a senior reporter at The Deal, a Manhattan-based digital financial new outlet.

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NorthBaybiz 21

Comin '

Rick Allen, left, and Lauren Monroe at one of Raven Drum’s performances in 2020. [Photo by Steve Jennings]

October 2025 October 2025

22 NorthBaybiz

Under Fire

Def Leppard drummer Rick Allen keeps the beat for

the health of North Bay

first responders

By Jason Walsh

October 2025

NorthBaybiz 23

life- savers on a New Year’s Eve nearly 40 years ago, Allen might not be here to

tell the tale. On Dec. 31 of 1984, Allen and his girlfriend Miriam Barendsen were on an afternoon drive through the Yorkshire countryside. The band’s third album, 1983’s Pyro- mania , had gone multi-platinum on the strength of several songs in heavy rotation on MTV and rock radio, pitting Def Leppard on the cusp of international superstardom. Rick Allen was on top of the world. But in the blink of an eye his world turned upside down. While trying to pass an aggressively driving Alfa Romeo, Allen lost control of his Corvette, sending the vehicle careening into a stone wall, throwing him more than 100 feet into a field—and severing his left arm, which was caught in the seatbelt strap. (Barendsen was slightly injured, but able to come to Allen’s aid.) As fate would have it, among the first people to arrive at the scene were an off-duty policeman, as well as an off-duty nurse, both of whom happened to be in the vicinity when the crash oc- curred. “There’s no such thing as an off duty first-responder—it’s the way they’re wired,” Allen told NBb recently. “If they see a situation in which they could help, they automatically do. It’s part of their DNA. “I was one of those fortunate recipients of two incredible an- gels on earth.” The quick arrival of first responders to the scene saved Allen’s life—icing his severed arm and stabilizing him long enough to get to a hospital before blood loss became life threatening. After an initially successful surgical reattachment, his arm suffered an in- fection and was amputated. In 1985 the concept of a professional drummer with only one arm was unheard of, especially in a hard- driving rock band. On the brink of becoming one of the biggest bands in the world, it was roundly assumed Def Leppard would have to carry on with a different drummer.

“Is anybody out there, anybody

there—does anybody

wonder, anybody care?”

—Def Leppard, “Foolin’”

F ollowing the 2017 wildfires, thousands of North Bay residents owed a debt of thanks to first responders. Rick Allen understands that gratitude toward first re- sponders. He owes them his life. Allen is renowned as the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame drummer for Def Leppard—the Sheffield, England-born band that launched in the late 1970s as darlings of heavy metal’s “new wave” and went on to release a string of best-selling albums throughout the 1980s and ‘90s. Their string of hits includes “Photograph,” “Foo- lin’,” “Rock of Ages,” “Hysteria,” “Animal,” “Pour Some Sugar on Me,” “Let’s Get Rocked,” among others staple of classic rock radio. Def Leppard’s rise to rock royalty out of a working-class York- shire city known for its steel industry and mushy peas was unexpected in itself. Even more unexpected was Allen’s personal rise from tragedy to triumph—a journey that brings him full cir- cle Nov. 1 to Rohnert Park where he’ll speak out for the health of first responders at the annual gala for North Bay nonprofit First Responders Resiliency, Inc. Because if it wasn’t for the rapid response of a few dedicated

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October 2025

Rick Allen, top, and Def Leppard still keep a tour-heavy schedule, nearly 50 years into their careers. The band from Sheffield, UK is slated to hold its third Las Vegas residency in February 2026.

The rest of the story is music lore. In a show of steadfast friendship and loyalty, the band stuck with Allen. While the drummer learned to play solely as a righty, engineers developed a custom kit that could be played with a single arm and feet. More than two-and-a-half years after the crash that took their drummer’s left arm, Def Leppard released the follow- up to Pyromania —that album, Hysteria , would reach No. 1 on

Billboard’s album chart, producing seven hit singles and selling more than 20 million copies. Today, nearly five decades since forming, Def Leppard maintains an active touring schedule and a rabid fan base. In 2022, the band released its 12th studio album, Diamond Star Halos , and another is hopeful to drop in 2026. In 2001, Allen and spouse Lauren Monroe, a musician and healing arts educator, launched the Raven Drum Foundation, with

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NorthBaybiz 25

a mission to bring together musicians, health educators and the philanthropic community to support the healing of first responders and veterans struggling with post-traumatic stress. Statistics show first responders face significantly higher rates of substance abuse, divorce and chronic illness than the general population. They’re even more likely to die by suicide than in the line of duty.

To support wellness, the Raven Drum Foundation hosts drumming workshops, integrating such mind and body techniques as breathwork, visualization and heart-brain coherence education. It’s through Raven Drum and its healing circles that Allen and Monroe joined forces with First Responders Resiliency, the Cotati-based nonprofit formed by former first responder Susan Farren in the wake of the wildfires

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October 2025

in 2018 with a mission to “put PTSD out of business.” Allen and Monroe will serve as keynote speakers at the First Responders Resiliency fundraising gala, Nov. 1 from 5:30 to 9 p.m. at Sally Tomatoes event center in Rohnert Park. (It’s also Allen’s birthday that day.) For tickets and info, check out resiliency1st. org/event/responder-resiliency-gala. NorthBay biz recently spoke with Rick Allen about his support for North Bay first responders and his nearly 50- year legacy with Def Leppard. …… You became familiar with First Responders Resiliency through Raven Drum’s support for first responders and victims of the Tubbs Fire. And that began in 2023 with a partnership to hold drumming events at Chateau Diana Winery near Healdsburg? I met [Chateau Diana owner] Cory Manning through Todd Sucherman, drummer with the band Styx. Cory was taking drum lessons and we got to learn about what he went through in the Tubbs Fire and how his relationship developed with First Responders [Resiliency]. And that’s really where the connection with Raven Drum came in, and when we got to meet Susan Farren. And you’re now one of the nonprofit’s most ardent supporters. Now we’re kind of locked in. We love coming to the area. We see this incredible need. Fire season doesn’t get any shorter. It’s more random these days. We really see the trauma in our first responders and between Raven Drum and First Responders Resiliency we’re creating healthy individuals coming to a scene. Because the last thing someone in crisis needs is a first responder also in crisis. It’s your worst day—and what if the first responder is in a bad way themselves? You want that person to take command and control of the situation. That’s really what this is all about. Creating comprehensive programs for our first responders so they can remain [at their best].

Healthy first responders at the scene are critical. And so is healthy support during recovery. Did you have that following your accident? The amount of outreach and people who sent letters, my family, people around me, friends, the band. It allowed me to find a part of myself that I never tapped into before. Def Leppard was the first band I got into as a kid. I was 12 and can remember where I was in my house when I heard on the radio about your accident. It was because of people like you that helped me find the power of the human spirit. You’ve said before that, in losing your arm, you’ve gained a lot as well. Can you expand on that? People say, “Would you have done things differently?” In many ways going through what I went through—extreme trauma—it has elevated my life experience. More empathy toward others—just a general feeling of wanting to help people. You make a point of referring to Post Traumatic Stress as PTS—no “D.” No “disorder.” I’m glad you call it PTS. It’s something we can help. PTS has changed in terms of terminology. PTS Growth is a good one. I like the fact that you can reframe it. They once called it “soldier syndrome.” This sort of deregulation of the nervous system. Science has caught up. It understands the mechanisms that put [a person at risk]. Even before your accident, Def Leppard had touched on “soldier syndrome” in songs like “Die Hard the Hunter,” about a Vietnam vet beset by the trauma of the war. That was what we were going for. We touched on it quite a bit over the years. There’s nothing more critical during an emergency than physically and mentally healthy first responders. The people who came to your rescue in 1984 are examples of that—and they’ve got a great story as well. The really interesting thing about first responders is they’re a different breed. The two people that first came on the scene when I had my accident—Eileen was a nurse and Roger was a cop and the two of them were off duty. There’s no such thing as an off-duty first responder. It’s the way

Responders Resiliency Gala Help “put PTSD out of business” at the annual First Responders Resiliency Gala, a celebration of community and the vital mission of supporting those who serve. The event is Nov. 1 from 5:30 to 9 p.m. at Sally Tomatoes event center, 1500 Valley House Drive in Rohnert Park. Attendees will have a chance to bid on a signed Def Leppard guitar, donated by legendary drummer Rick Allen—exclusively auctioned off at the gala. Keynote speakers at the event include Rick Allen, drummer of Def Leppard, and Lauren Monroe, co-founder of Raven Drum Foundation and VIP Experience. General admission is $125. For more information, visit resiliency1st.org, call 707- 625-0636 or email register@ resiliency1st.org.

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