Glasgow City Region Adaptation Strategy - report

JUNE 2021

Glasgow City Region Climate Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan

Choosing to flourish in our future climate

Delivered by

Funded and produced on behalf of the following organisations:

Produced by:

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Glasgow City Region Climate Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan

About Climate Ready Clyde Climate Ready Clyde (CRC) is a cross-sector initiative funded by fifteen member organizations and supported by the Scottish Government to create a shared Vision, Strategy, and Action Plan for an adapting Glasgow City Region (GCR). 1.8 million people live, work and play in Glasgow City Region and a large number of businesses and organizations are based here, with £40 bn of GVA – a third of Scotland’s population and wealth. Increasingly they are impacted by the effects of climate change, both directly and from changes happening around the world. Adaptation is a strategic issue for Glasgow City Region in terms of securing inward investment and protecting the economy, as well as contributing to good placemaking, addressing inequality and minimizing and avoiding costs arising from unplanned impacts. Climate Ready Clyde was established on the basis that adapting is cheaper, easier and more effective when done together. • Collaborating for collective impact – Ensuring society is resilient to climate change requires us to reach across silos, sectors and agendas to create collective impact. Our members are committed to working together and with others in an innovative and inclusive way, so that CRC leads by example and effectively governs the adaptation space. • Informing and shaping the direction of Glasgow City Region and wider Scotland – Our members and the Secretariat are at the heart of the debates and discussion of the future of the City Region and wider Scotland, helping to shape a climate resilient future, for all those who live and work in the City Region. • Our work on evidence, adaptation guidance and resources helps those in the City Region working on the delivery of adaptation do more, faster.. • Leading in the global movement for climate action – We place Glasgow City Region’s efforts to adapt on a global stage, showcasing the leading work we do to inspire and support cities and regions around the world, and connecting and learning from those who can help us accelerate our plans.

Climate Ready Clyde is managed and delivered by Scottish sustainability charity Sniffer.

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The future we choose

A Glasgow City Region flourishing in the future climate

It is 2050. We successfully strengthened Glasgow City Region’s resilience to climate change and are flourishing in a new climate. In the 2020s, the challenge of the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in social renewal and a green recovery, bolstered by renewed ambition at COP26 in Glasgow, which strengthened the delivery of net-zero carbon emission targets for Glasgow City Region and Scotland. Media and cultural organizations joined efforts to imagine and help develop a better future. Buoyed by the progress of the 2020s, civic society continued to step up; more people took on active roles to enable their communities to become climate resilient and society collaborated to reduce emissions and achieve net-zero. New groups emerged and engaged, whilst existing organizations and communities in Glasgow City Region took bold steps to redraw the landscape, directing resources and assets towards a climate-ready future. Government policies focused on ensuring well-being in a changing climate and long-term societal and economic resilience to several potential shocks and stresses. As a result, Glasgow City Region thrives in 2050; it is a great place to live and work in, and to visit. Stepping outside, the air is clean and fresh due to the delivery of our net-zero ambitions, as well as from the abundant trees and green spaces which help keep the city and towns cool on hot days, regulate flows of water, and reduce flood risks. Most people get around by walking, biking, scooting or public transport, in a climate resilient transport network. Although flooding, heatwaves and storms still happen, infrastructure was modified to cope with their impacts and the routine plans established allow normal daily life to continue, supported by strong, resilient communities. In the early 2020s, local governments, businesses and community groups collaborated closely. Responding to the changing river and coastline, they reshaped their local places and agreed how to best manage land over the long-term. Businesses and communities responded to strong public sector leadership and market signals, in turn accelerating public action. As a result, risks are reduced and building insurance is more affordable due to the combination of public investment, early warning and plans in place. Local companies, including major multinationals, mainstreamed climate risks in their strategies in the 2020s, and now there is public and private investment in climate resilience, helping the region cope with the shocks and stresses of extreme weather events. Improved quality of life and enhanced resilience has also helped attract new investments into the region over the more recent decades. Businesses, organizations and communities have transformed, having honed their skills and knowledge to become climate ready. The transition created green jobs in climate change adaptation and today there is a thriving sector dedicated to managing risks and realizing climate opportunities. In the 2020s it felt uncertain whether climate change would reduce the opportunities for the next generation, but the changes started then have led to a bright future for those in Glasgow City Region. Today, Glasgow City Region is seen as a centre of excellence on climate adaptation; our thriving community of adaptation experts provide support and evidence to other city regions around the world.

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Glasgow City Region Climate Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan

An un-adapted Glasgow City Region

It is 2050. More extreme weather events are regularly occurring, as scientists have warned for decades. Major flooding is widespread and big storms and heatwaves are now part of normal life.

Glasgow City Region is a much riskier place to live and climate-anxiety is commonplace. In winter, heavy rainfall and storms mean citizens now routinely check SEPA’s flood forecasts as a necessity and the media regularly tell us that new threats are always a looming possibility. Walking down the street feels profoundly different from the 2020s. Although there are still some green spaces, Glasgow City Region has an absence of places where we can experience nature. Access to green space is a postcode lottery and makes it harder for wildlife to migrate and survive. Riverbanks are lined by grey, concrete and steel; flood defences restrict people’s access to the river and provide a vivid reminder of the constant risks of flooding. Spotting a redshank on the Clyde’s banks is now cause for celebration rather than a regular occurrence. Getting around needs careful planning; despite continued infrastructure investments, new developments weren’t climate-proofed and disruption to travel is frequent. Flash flooding disrupts our commutes to work, and the school run, whilst coastal erosion along the river estuary has increased, damaging low-lying railway lines and breaking links into the city centre. Other trains are regularly delayed or cancelled due to flooding, landslides and heatwaves. Roads are also vulnerable, with the motorways, Erskine Bridge and the Rest and Be Thankful frequently closed due to climate extremes. The region’s coastal towns have grown with new developments, but these are proving prone to flooding and rising sea levels, and some are becoming uninsurable. Many other medium and long- term climate risks – such as extreme temperatures – have been neglected in forward planning. As a result, homes and buildings overheat regularly, affecting the elderly and the young, and care for the elderly is even more expensive as increased air conditioning requirements in care homes drive costs higher. These impacts have widened economic and social divides. There is widespread public concern about why previous decisions ignored climate risks. Now, communities are anxious about their futures, worrying about where and how they will live, and whether they can afford to move or retrofit their recently built homes. Climate change hit public finances and the region’s economy hard. An increasing share of the public budget is spent on addressing climate impacts, further reducing public services. Without wider support to respond strategically, many businesses only focus on managing the day-to-day shocks. As shareholders and asset managers have realized the threat of climate change, many companies have left Glasgow City Region, attracted to places that were adapting for the longer term, causing rising unemployment. For those that call Glasgow City Region home, climate change is driving the wedge deeper into existing inequalities and further eroding our community’s social contract. The generation growing up in the region find themselves caught in the middle of a perfect storm and struggle to feel much hope.

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Citation This document should be referred to as: Climate Ready Clyde (2021) Glasgow City Region Climate Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan 2020–2030: Choosing to flourish in our future climate

Authors Lead author: England, K. (Sniffer) Contributing authors: C. Pearce, R. Wolstenholme (Sniffer), S. Kholsa, P. Watkiss, (Paul Watkiss Associates), G. Lawrence, K. Tooke, B. Twist (Creative Carbon Scotland).

Copyright The report is copyright Sniffer, 2021

Acknowledgements The Climate Ready Clyde Secretariat (Sniffer) is grateful to the following individuals for their contributions, input and diligence. Without them this would not have been possible. Thank you to: • Climate Ready Clyde Board and Subgroup: John Binning, Duncan Booker, James Curran, Phil Daws, Adam Armour-Florence, David Harley, Lesley Hinshelwood, Samuel Ibbott, Martin Johnston, Craig Love, David Mallon, John Mckenna, Stuart McMillan, Stewart Miller, Sonia Milne, Paul Murphy, Nicole Paterson, Erica Roche, Neil Sampson, Linda Stephenson, Faye Tester, Niall Urquhart, Alan Williamson, and Roddy Yarr. • Contributors: Anne Marte Bergseng, Jenny Cooke, Matt Costello, Gerry Cornes, Mairi Davies, David Faichney, David Harkin, Max Hislop, Ewan Hyslop, Andy Kerr, Judi Kilgallon, James Murray, Marie Porteous, Julie Proctor, Karen Ridgewell, Kevin Rush, Tom Russon, Michael Simpson, Stuart Tait, Chris Thomson, Neil Walmsley, Kay White.

• Sniffer: Anna Beswick, Janet Forgan, Ellie Murtagh, Catherine Payne, Eleanor Pratt, Iryna Zamuruieva,

• Resilient Regions: Clyde Rebuilt Consortium: Alice Bucker, Catriona Patterson (Creative Carbon Scotland) Ellie Tonks, (Climate KIC): Federica Cimato (Paul Watkiss Associates), Rod Bain (Sniffer)

• Additional contributors: Mona Awan, Zarina Ahmad, Alyson Bell, Kathryn Brown, Richard Flemming, Dorothy Graham, Gemma Holmes, Ana Maiya, Cameron MacKay, Sharon McAulay, Grant McFarlane, Miriam Mckenna, Caroline McParland, Karen Orr, Ricardo Rea, Mike Roberts, Lesley-Anne Rose, Rose Sehakizinka, Wafa Shaheen, Caroline Tolan, Sam Waller.

Any errors that remain in this report are the responsibility of the lead author.

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Glasgow City Region Climate Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan

Contents

Foreword

2

PART 1 Introduction, background and context

4 5 6 9

1.1 Introduction, background and context

1.2 About Glasgow City Region 1.3 The climate crossroads

1.4 Our vision, Theory of Change and principles 1.5 The economics of climate change and adaptation

10 13 14 16

1.6 Delivering ‘Just Resilience’ 1.7 Building ecological resilience

PART 2 A Strategy for a City Region that flourishes in its future climate

18

2.1 About the Strategy

19

2.2 Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan objectives 19 2.3 Our ambition: transformational adaptation, accelerated by systems-level innovation21 2.4 How the Strategy was developed 23 2.5 Strategic interventions 26 2.4 Place-based priorities 61 2.5 Assessing social and environmental impacts of the Adaptation Strategy 63

PART 3 Strategic Action Plan 2020–2025

64 65 67 85 92

3.1 About the Action Plan 3.2 Flagship Actions 3.3 Making it happen

3.4 Get involved

Part 4: Glossary

93

Endnotes

96

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Foreword: COVID-19, climate change and COP26 – leading a regional just, green recovery

The COVID-19 pandemic took hold halfway through the production of Climate Ready Clyde’s Adaptation Strategy. Before that, Glasgow City Region was already under pressure, with a rising and moving population and increasing pressure on nature. We are expecting an additional 51,000 people to live here by 2043, whilst 49% fewer animal and plant species live here than in 1970. COVID-19 comes as a major health, social and economic shock on top of this. In Glasgow City Region, 217,000 staff were furloughed, with 38,000 additional people claiming some form of unemployment benefit.

But whilst the restrictions, lockdown and emergency response have been very difficult for everyone in Glasgow City Region and beyond, it also offered a glimpse of something else: the potential for a very different way of life. As society slowed down, nature returned, communities and businesses came together in pursuit of shared goals, and national and local governments made rapid shifts in the interest of health and well-being. The pandemic may possibly be with us for years to come. And just like we were warned of the current health crisis, the risks from climate change have not gone away. They have the potential to be just as disruptive, if not more so. Calls for greater climate action have been replaced with louder ones for a green, just, economic recovery, which builds our resilience to a wider range of shocks and stresses. As the world works through the pandemic, and begins to recover and restart, we are at something of a unique moment. A moment with a window for significant change and an opportunity to listen to the views of scientists for our citizens and future generations. Replicating global economic recovery approaches has not always worked well for Glasgow City Region, resulting in much longer recoveries than other cities around the UK. And our region’s history of deindustrialization shows us only too well the results of catastrophic, unplanned (and ultimately unmanaged) economic change. As Glasgow City Region prepares to host world leaders for the UN Climate Change Conference (COP26) in 2021, all eyes are on the steps we take next. UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres has said that the current crisis is an unprecedented wake-up call and that we need to turn the recovery into a real opportunity to do things right for the future. We wholeheartedly agree. With adaptation and resilience, finance and nature- based solutions all key themes of the conference, there is no better time to demonstrate their potential for transforming the world. So, this Strategy offers a different approach – a path to a fairer future – one that improves the security for all in Glasgow City Region, as well as for wider Scotland, creating fairer, more inclusive places, resilient to climate impacts. It sets out 11 interventions, supported by our innovative Resilient Regions: Clyde Rebuilt project that will collectively deliver the social, cultural, economic, environmental and democratic renewal and change necessary to ensure everyone in Glasgow City Region can flourish in our future climate. It draws strength from our people, our communities and our businesses, and looks to harness our skills, innovation

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Glasgow City Region Climate Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan

and partnership to make our places more climate resilient in a just transition. And it draws on our history of transformation: from the ‘dear green place’ and the vision of New Lanark, to industrial powerhouse, from industrial decline to a European Capital of Culture, host of the Commonwealth Games and leading centre for wind energy and storage at Whitelee. As such, we believe it offers a compelling model for the regional transition that we and all other cities and regions around the world, must go through in the coming decade. Ambitious action on mitigation started our next regional transition, so it’s only right we honour the Paris Agreement by mirroring it with an equally ambitious approach to adaptation and resilience. As host city region for COP26, our citizens deserve nothing less. But such an approach will only succeed if we move together.

The world is watching – now it is time for every organization, community and business to deliver together.

James Curran Chair, Climate Ready Clyde

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PART 1

Introduction, background and context

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Glasgow City Region Climate Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan

1.1 Introduction, background and context Welcome to Glasgow City Region’s Climate Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan. This document is a significant output from Climate Ready Clyde, based on extensive engagement and evidence gathering to address the challenge of a changing climate for Glasgow City Region. Climate Ready Clyde has worked with a wide range of groups to develop a framework for adapting Glasgow City Region; a compelling vision of a Glasgow City Region that flourishes in a future climate and how Glasgow City Region can act to deliver it. Realizing its ambitions will only be possible by engaging and mobilizing a much larger cohort of public bodies, government, business and communities. Doing so will bring lasting benefits for all those who live, work in and visit the region, as well as for wider Scotland.

A Glasgow City Region that flourishes in a future climate

Vision to (2050)

3 Impact Areas

Outcomes

Guiding Principles

11 Interventions 42 Sub-interventions

Strategy (2030)

Broader City Region Contributions

16 Flagship Actions

Action Plan (2021–2025)

Fig. 1. Adaptation Framework for Glasgow City Region.

Given that climate change will affect each and every individual in the region, it is for everyone ; every person, community group, business and organization with a stake. The document contains many messages and routes to express them, with the aim of ensuring as many people as possible do so, and act on them. The overarching message is the intention to transform the region to adapt to climate challenge and ensure everyone benefits from doing so. Over the last four years, Climate Ready Clyde has laid the foundations for the transition. Now, the Strategy and Action Plan provides a comprehensive blueprint for how we will make it happen over the next decade. But it will only happen by mobilizing the collective capacity of all those with a stake in Glasgow City Region. In this regard, it is only the beginning of that journey, and the final pathway will change and develop as more people get involved and participate. The document is in three parts: • Part 1 sets out the background and context, our climate risks and opportunities, our vision, and the case for adaptation • Part 2 is the Adaptation Strategy, setting out the ambition, objectives and relevant policy, before setting out 11 strategic interventions needed by 2030 to take us towards meeting the vision • Part 3 is the Action Plan, setting out 16 Flagship Actions and wider contributions from across Glasgow City Region and beyond to deliver the Strategy in the next 5-year period. It also includes stretch targets, CRC’s approach to enabling delivery, and the funding and financing approach.

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1.2 About Glasgow City Region

West Dunbartonshire

East Dunbartonshire

£40 bn. GVA per year

Inverclyde

North Lanarkshire

Renfrewshire Glasgow City

1.8m people

East Renfrewshire

South Lanarkshire

2 world heritage sites (Antonine Wall, New Lanark)

20 areas of European significance for habitats and wildlife

0

2

4

6

8km

Fig. 2. Map of Glasgow City Region.

What is climate change adaptation?

Climate change adaptation comprises all the actions and solutions that a country, a region, a city, or a community can develop and implement to build more resilient societies and economies, to respond to the impacts of climate change that are already happening or are expected. It is a series of changes in processes, practices and structures that aim to moderate the potential damages brought by climate change. The solutions for climate adaptation vary from one context to another. They can range from building flood defences or setting up early warning systems for cyclones to redesigning communication systems, business operations and government policies.

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Glasgow City Region Climate Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan

Key climate facts

+2 ºC / + 1.5ºC The 2015 Paris Agreement goal of limiting temperature rise to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit to 1.5°C

7 in 10 adults that agree climate change is an immediate and urgent problem + 1ºC Rise in average global temperature that has already happened

Our climate is already changing

but there are goals to limit warming under the Paris Agreement:

8 in 10 adults that agree climate change will impact Scotland

And people in Scotland want us to act:

We’re generally a cold and wet region:

140 120 100

18 16 14 12 10

80 60 40 20 0

8 6 4 2 0

Jan

Feb March

April

May

June

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

But observations show Glasgow City Region’s temperatures and rainfall are increasing:

Average temperature in Glasgow City Region (Paisley), 1960–2019

Average annual rainfall in Glasgow City Region (Paisley), 1960–2019

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160 140 120 100

10

9

80 60

8

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2019

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2019

In all scenarios, climate change means Glasgow City Region will experience:

Increasing extreme weather

Heavier winter rainfall and reduced summer rainfall

Higher average temperatures, with more frequent and extreme heatwaves

Sea level rise and coastal erosion

Increased likelihood of flooding

All of these will lead to significant impact in our City Region. At present we have identified:

67 climate risks and opportunities

10 areas where more action is needed to address our risks in four areas: infrastructure; society and health; natural environment; and economy, business and industry

210 publicly listed companies exposed to physical climate risks

21,500 extra homes at risk of flooding by the 2080s

£££ £ hundreds of millions/ year – damages by the 2050s without adaptation unmanaged

Sources: UKCP18 Probabilistic Projections, Met Office Hadley Centre, UK State of the Climate 2019, Met Office Historical Data, Climate Action Tracker, MSCI, and Scottish Household survey data explorer.

Fig. 3. Key climate facts.

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However, future global emissions pathways will influence how big these changes will be i.e. depending on whether the world is broadly on a +2˚C pathway or a +4˚C pathway (relative to pre-industrial temperatures). The projected change is shown below for two pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP6.0) with are broadly equivalent to a +2˚C pathway (RCP2.6) and a +4˚C pathway (RCP6.0). However, future global emissions pathways will influence how big these changes will be i.e. depending on whether the world is broadly on a +2°C or +4°C pathway (relative to pre-industrial temperatures). The projected change is shown below for two pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP6.0) which are broadly equivalent to a +2°C pathway (RCP2.6) and a +3-4°C pathway (RCP6.0).

Projected annual average air temperature change

3

3

2

2

1

1

0

0

-1

-1

1965 1980 1995 2010 2025 2040 2055 2070 2085

1965 1980 1995 2010 2025 2040 2055 2070 2085

RCP2.6

RCP6

Projected percentage change in winter rainfall

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60

40

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20

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-20

-20

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1965 1980 1995 2010 2025 2040 2055 2070 2085

1965 1980 1995 2010 2025 2040 2055 2070 2085

RCP2.6

RCP6

Projected percentage change in summer rainfall

3

3

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1

1

0

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-1

-1

1965 1980 1995 2010 2025 2040 2055 2070 2085

1965 1980 1995 2010 2025 2040 2055 2070 2085

RCP2.6

RCP6

Projected sea level rise

1

0.8

RCP2.6 RCP4.5

RCP8.5 RCP8.5 (95th)

0.6

0.4

0.2

0

2007

2017

2027

2037

2047

2057

2067

2077

2087

2099

Fig. 4. Projected climate change for Glasgow City Region.

The figures show key projected changes (the anomaly) in temperature and rainfall for a number of Representative Concentration Pathways (the RCPs). The bold line shows the central project of the 50 th percentile – i.e. as likely as not in the current scenario. The shaded areas show the other relative percentiles of probability – from 5, 10, 25 th , 75 th , 90 th and 95 th . RCP2.6 is a deep mitigation scenario and is representative of pathways that lead to very low greenhouse gas concentration levels. This scenario has a good chance of achieving the 2˚C goal. RCP6.0 is a medium emission scenario (with lowmitigation) which is closer to current emission pledges. Note no marine projections for the RCP6.0 projections were produced for UKCP18, so they have not been included here. 1 The figures above show key projected changes (the anomaly) in temperature and rainfall for a number of Representative Concentration Pathways (the RCPs). The bold line shows the central projection of 50th percentile – i.e. as likely as not in the current scenario. The shaded areas show the other relative percentiles of probability – from 5, 10, 25th, 75th, 90th and 95th. RCP2.6 is a deep mitigation scenario and is representative of pathways that lead to very low greenhouse gas concentration levels. This scenario has a good chance of achieving the 2 º C goal. RCP6.0 is a medium emission scenario (with low mitigation) which is closer to current emission pledges.

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Glasgow City Region Climate Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan

1.3 The climate crossroads Glasgow City Region stands at a climate crossroads. People in the region are already beginning to experience the impacts of climate change, but how that looks and feels in the future depends on global action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. At present, the world is not on track to achieve the goals set by the Paris Agreement 2 in 2015. The Scottish Government’s national net-zero target for greenhouse gas emissions (by 2045) means that the region is delivering its own contribution towards mitigation, with Glasgow City setting its own more ambitious target for carbon neutrality by 2030. But even if the Paris Agreement is achieved globally, this will mean Glasgow City Region faces a very different climate over coming decades.

What is mitigation?

Mitigation strategies regroup all the efforts to reduce or prevent the emission of greenhouse gases (which leads to more climate change). Some of the ways to limit future emissions are the use of new technologies and renewable energies (including wind and solar power), to make older equipment more energy efficient and to change management practices or consumer behaviour.

The UK Climate Projections (UKCP18) show that the climate will change in Glasgow City Region will over the next decade or so, but these changes are projected to be broadly similar regardless of emissions. After 2030, this future becomes much more uncertain and depends on the success of global emissions reductions. By 2030, we will know if the world is on track to limit temperature rises to below 2°C, in line with the Paris Agreement, and what success there has been in limiting rises towards 1.5°C (relative to pre-industrial). If this has not been successful, we may face much higher temperature increases in the period that follows. In 2019 Climate Ready Clyde completed a detailed Climate Risk and Opportunity Assessment 3 to understand what this could mean for Glasgow City Region’s economy, society and environment in the short- and long-term. These were used to inform the development of the Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan. The assessment identified 67 risks and opportunities. Within this set, there were 10 particular risks or opportunities where further action is needed over the next five years:

IN3: Risks to infrastructure services from coastal flooding and erosion

IN7: Risks to energy, transport and ICT infrastructure from storms and high waves

IN8: Risks to energy, transport and ICT infrastructure from extreme heat

SH5: Risks to NHS estates due to flooding and overheating

NE1: Risks to soil stock from changes in temperature and water regime

NE5: Risks to crops and livestock from extremes in temperature and water regime

BI5: Opportunities for products and services to support adaptation NE17: Risks to freshwater biodiversity from pests, invasive species and disease

BI1: Risks to new and existing business sites from river, surface water and coastal flooding

BI4: Risks to business from disruption to supply chains and distribution networks

Fig.5. Glasgow City Region’s risks and opportunities where more action is needed in the next five years.

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The Assessment also found climate risks are unevenly distributed across Glasgow City Region. They will disproportionately affect those of us who are less well off, as such people tend to live in riskier places, be more vulnerable in general terms and have more limited means to respond. In addressing these risks there are potentially important opportunities (or benefits) from climate change, but these will not be fully realized, nor shared equally, without a planned and coordinated approach. Therefore, we need to implement climate change adaptation solutions now and plan an approach over the next decade which ensures the region is climate ready for a range of possible changes and impacts. This means building our collective and individual capacity to adjust in the face of different climate futures (which have both general and extreme changes) and ensuring a focus on the most vulnerable to the impacts. Doing so will help us reduce potential damages, cope with the consequences and ensure we take advantage of the few opportunities a changing climate offers the region. By planning and implementing adaptation alongside mitigation (net-zero) we can maximize the benefits of both strategies and minimize trade-offs.

1.4 Our vision, Theory of Change and principles

Climate Ready Clyde has worked with a wide range of groups to develop a compelling vision of a Glasgow City Region that flourishes in a future climate. The vision is underpinned by a Theory of Change, 4 developed ahead of the Adaptation Strategy, that sets out conditions required for that change to occur. We have used the vision and principles to inform the development of both the Strategy and Action Plan.

A Glasgow City Region that flourishes in a future climate

Vision to (2050)

3 Impact Areas

Outcomes

Guiding Principles

11 Interventions 42 Sub-interventions

Strategy (2030)

Broader City Region Contributions

16 Flagship Actions

Action Plan (2021–2025)

Fig.6. Vision and Theory of Change within Glasgow City Region’s Adaptation Framework.

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Glasgow City Region Climate Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan

Fig 3. Theory of Change for a Glasgow City Region that flourishes in the future climate

A Glasgow City Region (GCR) that flourishes in the future climate

People shape their lives and places so they are climate ready

Actors collectively create the right conditions for Glasgow City Region to become climate ready

Glasgow City Region is made climate ready by the way resources, services and assets are directed and used

Individuals and communities are equipped and enabled to drive action to become climate ready Individuals and communities know how to engage, influence and co-design Co-designed policy frameworks work with and for communities, and drive climate resilience A new form of democracy which explicitly involves disempowered, vulnerable and marginalized individuals and communities Individuals and communities have the desire and ambition to drive action so that their lives and places are climate ready Widespread understanding of potential climate impacts; what these mean for places and adaptation options Widespread understanding of the need for action to be climate ready

Effective governance and leadership drive the transformational change Flexible governance processes and structures enabling coordination across institutions and actors across scales New, inspired and effective forms of leadership (national, regional and local) with a long-term focus from across the political spectrum Policy frameworks enable decision-making and investment under uncertainty Creativity, boldness and innovation catalyse transformational change Increased technological and social innovation with the GCR as a test bed New definitions of, and metrics for, prosperity – that encompass climate resilience – are embraced across the GCR Culture, attitudes and behaviour supporting climate readiness

Economy and jobs are climate-smart GCR’s economy is reoriented to be net-zero and climate resilient GCR leads in disclosing climate risk and opportunity Effective mechanisms are in place to ensure a just transition to a climate- smart economy The financial system supports climate resilience The business opportunities associated with adaptation are realized and leveraged Ecological systems are resilient Climate adaptation is embedded into all socio-economic and environmental decisions, and GCR plans and programmes Land and water management place- making are informed by future climate Blue-green infrastructure is recognized as a priority

A new normal – a shift in societal priorities Political and economic systems supporting climate readiness

Individuals and communities are resilient

Greater collective impact is achieved through collaborative working Collaboration is normalised and mainstreamed A climate-ready vision and ambition is shared across a range of institutions and actors

Adaptation actions prioritize building resilience particularly for the most vulnerable

Assets and services work well in the future climate

The critical systems upon which we rely (electricity, food, waste, IT, mobility, etc.) are fully decarbonized and resilient Assets and services (including healthcare, housing, mobility, etc.) are well designed for future climate Building standards, regulations and planning systems, prioritize climate resilience

Vision

Impacts Long-term outcomes Intermediate outcomes

Fig.7. Theory of Change for a climate-ready Glasgow City Region.

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The vision and Theory of Change are guided by the following principles:

• More of the same will not do. An effective response to climate change will require a revolutionary and systemic approach.

• Climate and social justice. People’s lives can be made healthier and happier, and inequality and vulnerability lessened by efforts to build climate resilience.

• Revolution in understanding. There needs to be a ‘revolution in understanding’ the potential impacts of climate change and the adaptation options available to a much wider cohort of people and communities. • Revolution in planning. There needs to be a ‘revolution in planning’. We must rethink how we use land and space and where and what we build, with planners and developers empowered to prioritize climate resilience.

• Revolution in finance. There needs to be a ‘revolution in finance’ to ensure that the funds and resources necessary to build climate resilience are made available.

• Recognizing uncertainty. Our future is uncertain; we need to reduce global heating and plan for worst- case scenarios, recognizing that climate change is not a linear process.

• Intrinsic value of nature. Nature/biodiversity has tangible cultural and spiritual value and efforts to build climate resilience should do so in ecological, as well as human, communities.

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Glasgow City Region Climate Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan

1.5 The economics of climate change and adaptation Climate Ready Clyde has assessed the potential economic costs of climate change in the region. The projected costs are shown below for three pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP6.0), with the upper and lower of these being broadly equivalent to a +2˚C pathway (RCP2.6) and a +4˚C pathway (RCP6.0). This indicates economic costs of approximately 0.5% to 0.9% of regional GDP by 2045, for a low and high warming scenario respectively (RCP2.6 and RCP6). These impacts are dominated by flooding (from coastal, river and surface water flooding). The costs rise significantly in later years, especially for higher warming levels.

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

0.0

-0.5

-1.0

-1.5

-2.0

-2.5

-3.0

-3.5

SSP2–RCP2.6 no adaptation

SSP2–RCP4.5 no adaptation

SSP2–RCP6.0 no adaptation

Fig.8. The potential economic costs of climate change in the region for multiple climate futures. Source: COACCH. 5

Importantly, the figure shows that even if the world meets the Paris Agreement goal to limit warming, there will still be high economic costs from climate change for the region, i.e. which are already locked in. These impacts can only be reduced by adaptation. Recent studies identify that such adaptation makes sound economic sense, with the benefits of action far outweighing the costs of inaction, and further, adaptation has high benefit-to-cost ratios. Delaying action will make it much harder to tackle future climate risks and may make large future costs inevitable. A headline assessment of the benefits of adaptation to sea level rise and flooding for Glasgow City Region shows the potential to reduce the impact of climate change on GDP by up to 1% by 2065.

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2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

0.0

-0.5

Benefit of adaptation

-1.0

-1.5

-2.0

-2.5

SSP2–RCP4.5 no adaptation

SSP2–RCP4.5 WITH adaptation

Fig.9. The benefits of adaptation for Glasgow City Region GDP, medium emission. Source: COACCH.

Glasgow City Region has started to manage climate risks and plan early responses, in line with the second Scottish Climate Change Adaptation Programme but much more is required to ensure we are climate ready by 2030 and on course to flourish in our future climate. The good news is that Climate Ready Clyde recognizes these challenges and is committed to addressing them with an inclusive and fair approach. We must act fast. It will require leadership, new governance mechanisms and funding regimes, and an explicit emphasis on addressing the current inequalities and inherent unfairness of climate change risks. The results will include benefits for our health and well-being, our economic prosperity and our way of life.

1.6 Delivering ‘Just Resilience’ Implicit throughout this Strategy and Action Plan is a focus on just resilience. Scotland is developing its approach to a ‘just transition’ – making sure the transition to environmentally and socially sustainable jobs, sectors and economies, is done in a way which makes all possible efforts to create decent, fair and high value work, and does not negatively affect the current workforce and overall economy. For adaptation, it is equally important to ensure just resilience; addressing the social and economic inequalities created by the exposure to climate risk and the ability to deal with them. Achieving just resilience will ensure the benefits of our region’s adaptation are widely and equitably shared. Ensuring we include a balance of interventions for the region, that includes targeted action towards the most vulnerable, involves several considerations. It is important to recognize that wider social and economic factors, such as the gender, ethnicity, age, disabilities, other protected characteristics, housing tenure and income all affect how people are impacted by climate change. These wider social and economic determinants should be addressed as part of adaptation responses. A good example is how SEPA has assessed the factors of vulnerability to flooding to prioritize investment in flood risk management. It could also mean developing new heatwaves plans in a way which makes sure all groups affected, and particularly vulnerable groups, are not overlooked.

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Glasgow City Region Climate Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan

Increasingly, it will involve promoting long-term economic diversification to ensure that workers whose jobs are impacted by climate change are able to requalify and move towards green growth sectors. This will require improving our understanding of the effects of climate change on workers, working conditions, health and safety, assessing the related distributional effects.

Complementing just resilience by ensuring adaptation reduces, not increases vulnerability

A complementary piece to a just resilience approach is ensuring we also plan to ensure adaptation efforts avoid increasing vulnerability. Sometimes an adaptation intervention to address one issue or in one area can lead to detrimental effects for others for example, by redirecting water to other places and transferring risks or by accidentally raising property prices, reducing available incomes to adapt should a flood event occur. Some forms of adaptation may also give a false sense of security, reducing people’s preparedness to future risks. Addressing these issues requires a greater focus on integrated and iterative adaptation.

Fig.10. Intersection of future flood exposure and social vulnerability in 2050, 4˚C scenario. Source: Sayers et al. (2017). 6

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1.7 Building ecological resilience

Addressing the climate risks to people involves recognising that we are inherently related to and reliant upon the natural environment. Therefore adaptation must also seek to build the resilience of nature and wider ecological systems. The recent Dasgupta Review on the Economics of Biodiversity 7 identified that our economy and society have collectively failed to engage with nature sustainably, to the extent that our demands far exceed its capacity to supply us with the goods and services we all rely on. This has neatly been acknowledged in the concept of ‘Doughnut’ economics – which explicitly recognises the environmental constraints, as well as the need to provide strong social foundations for all. As shown below, the world is operating far beyond the ecological ceiling in many areas, including climate change.

Fig 11: The Doughnut of social and planetary boundaries for the global population, with overshoot of planetary boundaries and shortfall on basic needs both shown in red. Source: Doughnut Economics Action Lab.

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Glasgow City Region Climate Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan

This global overshoot is mirrored at the UK and EU levels. The actions we take to adapt and build our own resilience to climate change (e.g. through nature-based solutions) also offer the potential to enhance the natural environment, protecting and building the resilience of vital habitats and ecosystems and our own in a virtuous cycle. This will help ecological systems adjust to the historic consequences of carbon emissions, as we restructure our economy and society to work within them. Note: dark green circles show the ecological ceiling and social foundation. Blue wedges show social performance relative to a threshold associated with meeting basic needs. Green wedges show resource use relative to a biophysical boundary associated with sustainability. Red wedges show shortfalls below the social threshold or overshoot beyond the biophysical boundary, while grey wedges show indicators with missing data. Wedges with a dashed edge extend beyond the chart area.

Fig 12: Comparison of UK and EU-28 performance against the global ecological ceiling and social foundations. Source: University of Leeds.

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PART 2

A Strategy for a City Region that flourishes in its future climate

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Glasgow City Region Climate Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan

2.1 About the Strategy The Adaptation Strategy provides the strategic direction for Glasgow City Region through to 2030 to realize our vision and Theory of Change. It sets out 11 interventions supported by 42 sub-interventions, designed to shape our near-term Action Plan, as well as wider action across Glasgow City Region. Its role in the Adaptation Framework for Glasgow City Region is shown below:

A Glasgow City Region that flourishes in a future climate

Vision to (2050)

3 Impact Areas

Outcomes

Guiding Principles

11 Interventions 42 Sub-interventions

Strategy (2030)

Broader City Region Contributions

16 Flagship Actions

Action Plan (2021–2025)

Fig.13. Adaptation Strategy within the Glasgow City Region Adaptation Framework.

2.2 Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan objectives

This Strategy and Action Plan:

• seeks to build the region’s social, economic, and environmental resilience to climate change • outlines the processes and early interventions needed to manage climate risks and realize opportunities in line with our Theory of Change • provides a strategic framework for adaptation in and by Glasgow City Region that fits alongside and supports key plans, policies and activities to enable delivery • sets out how we will deepen and expand collaboration and collective impact by working together and engaging, equipping and enabling citizens and organizations to play a role in realizing the vision • sets out how progress in increasing climate resilience will be monitored, evaluated and learnt from to improve policies, strategies, programmes and projects.

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Much of the ambition in this Strategy is aligned to existing or emerging Scottish policy, driven by the outcomes in the National Performance Framework. For example, Scotland’s Place Principle is integral to our approach. Glasgow City Region is a place where people, location and resources combine to create a sense of identity and purpose. This is at the heart of addressing the needs and realizing the full potential of communities. This was also at the heart of National Planning Framework 4, 8 which embodies many other ongoing aspirations such as: • creating 20-minute neighbourhoods • prioritizing the redevelopment of brownfield sites and addressing issues of vacant and derelict land • re-imagining town centres identified as a high source of heat generation • embedding the requirement for low and zero carbon design and energy efficiency • securing low carbon heating solutions • woodland creation and expansion • use of open spaces, green infrastructure and biodiversity to make places more resilient • the protection of peatland and carbon rich soils. It has also been designed to directly support Glasgow City Region’s Economic Recovery Plan, 9 helping support efforts to simulate our economy and create jobs as we emerge from the COVID-19 pandemic. Much other existing policy contains the levers needed to achieve our vision. These are included in the technical annexes. It is important that all the activities undertaken to deliver the Strategy should be undertaken as sustainably as possible, making use of tools and processes and concepts such as the circular economy, the waste hierarchy, biodiversity net-gain, CEEQUAL and BRREAM.

Net-zero – achieving synergies, avoiding trade-offs

Achieving net-zero is an important ambition for Scotland, and will require wide-reaching change to transport, land use, energy and planning systems of a similar type to those outlined here. When done in parallel, such changes have the potential to create synergies (for example, protecting and restoring peatlands to store carbon and reduce flood risk), as well as trade-offs (for example, denser towns and cities can reduce transport emissions, but increase risks by creating heat islands). A key principle throughout the Strategy has been to maximize the synergies and minimize trade- offs, and such synergies will also be required for individual projects.

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Glasgow City Region Climate Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan

2.3 Our ambition: transformational

adaptation, accelerated by systems- level innovation

Achieving our vision of a City Region that flourishes in a future climate will require widespread and sustained change. Glasgow City Region is getting ready to deliver its net-zero ambition in line with Scottish Government’s commitments and with Glasgow City aspiring to a more ambitious target to be carbon neutral by 2030. We want a similarly ambitious approach in Glasgow City Region for adaptation. Delivering this will require new types of response . Some interventions in the Strategy take a proactive but incremental approach to adaptation. In such cases, the aim is to improve the climate resilience of existing systems and actions. This often involves mainstreaming climate change into policies, programmes and plans. In other areas however, this incremental approach will not be sufficient to address the scale of future risks. In such cases, a different form of adaptation is needed, involving more transformational adaptation . 10 As actors in the region shift into more transformational responses, their coverage changes; there is more overlap with both the net-zero agenda and wider sustainable development in the region, and a ‘whole- systems’ approach is needed. This increases the potential for both synergies and trade-offs between adaptation wider socio-economic goals and requires engagement with and action by a more diverse set of actors. The interventions in the Adaptation Strategy (and set out in the next section) represent a suite of actions, that start with incremental adaptation but move to transformation, as well as shifting from climate risk alone to wider sustainable development. The diagram below sets out where the interventions of the Strategy sit in terms of this response and coverage. To complement and accelerate the interventions in the Adaptation Strategy and increase the pace and scale of change for adaptation, we have employed systems thinking to develop larger-scale innovation. Our vehicle for this approach has been the Resilient Regions: Clyde Rebuilt project, working in partnership with EIT Climate-KIC.

What is transformational adaptation?

Transformational adaptation involves changing existing approaches, altering governance arrangements, and addressing underlying causes of climate risk or vulnerability. It may also involve re-thinking the future vision of the region, including the societal, cultural, institutional, ecological and physical changes needed, as well as the region’s political economy. Transformational approaches call for systems thinking and socio-institutional analysis, and offer the potential to deliver a larger, more sustainable, permanent, long-term change (Source: Clyde Rebuilt, 2020).

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