However, future global emissions pathways will influence how big these changes will be i.e. depending on whether the world is broadly on a +2˚C pathway or a +4˚C pathway (relative to pre-industrial temperatures). The projected change is shown below for two pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP6.0) with are broadly equivalent to a +2˚C pathway (RCP2.6) and a +4˚C pathway (RCP6.0). However, future global emissions pathways will influence how big these changes will be i.e. depending on whether the world is broadly on a +2°C or +4°C pathway (relative to pre-industrial temperatures). The projected change is shown below for two pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP6.0) which are broadly equivalent to a +2°C pathway (RCP2.6) and a +3-4°C pathway (RCP6.0).
Projected annual average air temperature change
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
1965 1980 1995 2010 2025 2040 2055 2070 2085
1965 1980 1995 2010 2025 2040 2055 2070 2085
RCP2.6
RCP6
Projected percentage change in winter rainfall
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
0
-20
-20
-40
-40
1965 1980 1995 2010 2025 2040 2055 2070 2085
1965 1980 1995 2010 2025 2040 2055 2070 2085
RCP2.6
RCP6
Projected percentage change in summer rainfall
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
1965 1980 1995 2010 2025 2040 2055 2070 2085
1965 1980 1995 2010 2025 2040 2055 2070 2085
RCP2.6
RCP6
Projected sea level rise
1
0.8
RCP2.6 RCP4.5
RCP8.5 RCP8.5 (95th)
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
2007
2017
2027
2037
2047
2057
2067
2077
2087
2099
Fig. 4. Projected climate change for Glasgow City Region.
The figures show key projected changes (the anomaly) in temperature and rainfall for a number of Representative Concentration Pathways (the RCPs). The bold line shows the central project of the 50 th percentile – i.e. as likely as not in the current scenario. The shaded areas show the other relative percentiles of probability – from 5, 10, 25 th , 75 th , 90 th and 95 th . RCP2.6 is a deep mitigation scenario and is representative of pathways that lead to very low greenhouse gas concentration levels. This scenario has a good chance of achieving the 2˚C goal. RCP6.0 is a medium emission scenario (with lowmitigation) which is closer to current emission pledges. Note no marine projections for the RCP6.0 projections were produced for UKCP18, so they have not been included here. 1 The figures above show key projected changes (the anomaly) in temperature and rainfall for a number of Representative Concentration Pathways (the RCPs). The bold line shows the central projection of 50th percentile – i.e. as likely as not in the current scenario. The shaded areas show the other relative percentiles of probability – from 5, 10, 25th, 75th, 90th and 95th. RCP2.6 is a deep mitigation scenario and is representative of pathways that lead to very low greenhouse gas concentration levels. This scenario has a good chance of achieving the 2 º C goal. RCP6.0 is a medium emission scenario (with low mitigation) which is closer to current emission pledges.
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