Glasgow City Region Climate Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan
1.5 The economics of climate change and adaptation Climate Ready Clyde has assessed the potential economic costs of climate change in the region. The projected costs are shown below for three pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP6.0), with the upper and lower of these being broadly equivalent to a +2˚C pathway (RCP2.6) and a +4˚C pathway (RCP6.0). This indicates economic costs of approximately 0.5% to 0.9% of regional GDP by 2045, for a low and high warming scenario respectively (RCP2.6 and RCP6). These impacts are dominated by flooding (from coastal, river and surface water flooding). The costs rise significantly in later years, especially for higher warming levels.
2020
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2050
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0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
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SSP2–RCP2.6 no adaptation
SSP2–RCP4.5 no adaptation
SSP2–RCP6.0 no adaptation
Fig.8. The potential economic costs of climate change in the region for multiple climate futures. Source: COACCH. 5
Importantly, the figure shows that even if the world meets the Paris Agreement goal to limit warming, there will still be high economic costs from climate change for the region, i.e. which are already locked in. These impacts can only be reduced by adaptation. Recent studies identify that such adaptation makes sound economic sense, with the benefits of action far outweighing the costs of inaction, and further, adaptation has high benefit-to-cost ratios. Delaying action will make it much harder to tackle future climate risks and may make large future costs inevitable. A headline assessment of the benefits of adaptation to sea level rise and flooding for Glasgow City Region shows the potential to reduce the impact of climate change on GDP by up to 1% by 2065.
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