MARKET REPORT
Domestic: February shipments reached 45 million pounds, down 19.9% from the same period last year. The domestic market continues to experience softer demand with year-to-date results down 18.1% in total. New sales were healthy, with a year-over-year increase of 72% resulting in forward commitments down only 1.1%. This market continues to experience multifactorial headwinds, culminating in categories such as snack almonds being down double digits over the last quarter. Recent booking activity has allowed buyers to be patient in making decisions on when to cover the back end of this crop year. COMMITMENTS Total commitments currently stand at 593 million pounds, surpassing last year by 2.77%. New sales for the month totaled 246.3 million pounds with the domestic market securing an additional 50.6 million pounds up from the prior year’s 29.4 million pounds. Exports added 195.7 million pounds of new coverage, modestly up from 191.4 million pounds exported the prior year. Total commitments for the domestic market are now at 220 million pounds while exports have reached 374 million pounds, to support upcoming shipments. Uncommitted inventory is up 3.5% from last year, sitting at 999 million pounds versus 965 million pounds. CROP Crop receipts were surprisingly strong in February, having now reached 2.68 billion pounds, indicating an updated final crop size of approximately 2.71 billion pounds. This puts the final 2025 industry crop at a similar level to the 2024 crop. February weather across California’s growing regions brought a mix of varied temperatures and intermittent storms during the critical bloom period. Bloom progressed rapidly from early February through the end of the month, with some rain and wind events that limited bee flight and pollination activity. However, warmer and drier conditions toward the end of the month helped move orchards through bloom and into petal fall, supporting early nut development. At this early stage, it is still too soon to draw firm conclusions about crop size. Over the next two months, trees will shed nonviable nuts, better informing crop potential. As nutlets are beginning to mature, weather will be a key factor for crop development. Growers will keep an eye on water availability as we enter the warmer months of the year and adjust operations accordingly.
Market Perspective The February Position Report provided an
The fundamentals of this last report should provide stability in pricing. Since bloom has concluded across California’s growing regions, the industry’s focus will increasingly turn toward early crop development and initial nut set assessments in the coming weeks. Combined with shipment pace and global demand conditions, the progression of the 2026 crop will continue to shape market sentiment as the industry moves into the second half of the marketing year.
encouraging signal for the market, with total shipments reaching 241.1 million pounds, a 12% increase year over year, driven primarily by strong export demand. The shipment performance demonstrates that global buyers remain responsive when pricing aligns with market expectations, particularly across key export destinations. Export markets continue to serve as the primary driver of industry movement, offsetting weaker domestic demand and reinforcing the importance of international trade channels for California almonds.
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ALMOND FACTS
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