2023 - 24 Annual Report
Goal 4
CropperGIS / McKibben Demographic Report
This year , the district contracted with CropperGIS / McKibben Demographics to produce a demographic report for the City of Newton to better understand how any changes in city demographics might impact student enrollment . A similar report was produced in April 2019 ; an updated report was requested post - pandemic based on shifts in demographic trends and the availability of the 2020 U . S . census data . Overall , this demographic report forecasts : An enrollment decline of 442 students (- 3 . 8 %) over the next five years , which is similar to the district ’ s internal projections , which indicate a decline of 385 students (- 3 . 3 %). A moderate increase of 121 students ( + 1 . 1 %) from FY29 to FY34 The 10 - year forecast indicates a ten - year decline of 321 students (- 2 . 8 %). Key factors impacting this forecasted decline include : A resident total fertility rate below replacement level ( 1 . 63 compared to a replacement level of 2 . 1 ) Smaller cohorts projected to enter the district than the prior year ’ s graduating cohort A continuation of the aging population trend in Newton over the next 10 years ( from an average age of 41 . 7 in 2020 to 42 . 5 in2035 ).
Even with a forecasted overall district enrollment decline , the decline is not consistent across levels or schools , and is spread across all schools in districts .
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