Bigelow
445
425
448
473
529
508
522
Brown
750
732
713
696
685
703
709
Day
920
868
860
848
859
832
789
Oak Hill
657
648
649
628
591
604
576
TOTAL MIDDLE
2,772 2,673 2,670 2,645 2,664 2,647 2,596
Newton North
2,110 2,135 2,117 2,071 2,001 1,976 1,989
Newton South
1,837 1,862 1,898 1,913 1,929 1,868 1,853
TOTAL HIGH SCHOOL
3,947 3,997 4,015 3,984 3,930 3,844 3,842
GRAND TOTAL
11,717 11,596 11,494 11,396 11,307 11,235 11,207
Districtwide, Newton’s elementary enrollment is projected to be 4,817 students in fall 2029, which is 8 students more than this year’s elementary enrollment (0% change). While elementary enrollment is projected to decline in the next two years, enrollment is projected to increase back to FY25 levels over the remaining three years in the projection. Three primary factors that impact enrollment contribute to this: the size of the incoming kindergarten class, the size of the outgoing fifth grade class, and cohort growth. Although overall elementary enrollment is projected to stabilize over the next five years, this stabilization is not consistent across individual elementary schools. Some elementary schools are projected to see growth over the next five years, which is mainly due to new and anticipated residential developments in those districts or cohort growth. For the fourth year in a row, middle schools saw a decline in enrollment this fall, although the decline was very small (-3 students), and it was projected (-1 student). Typically, NPS sees a decline in cohort size from grade 5 to grade 6, as students leave for private middle school. For the second year in a row, the cohort grew from grade 5 to grade 6. It is possible that students who would have left NPS for private school in grade 6 left during the pandemic, thus changing the typical cohort pattern again this fall. Middle schools are projected to decline next year (-25 students), as the incoming sixth grade class is smaller than the outgoing eighth grade class. Middle school enrollment then increases in the next year of the projection, as the incoming grade 6 cohort is larger than the outgoing grade 8 cohort. Then middle school enrollment is projected to decline over the last three years of the projection. Over the five-year projection, middle school enrollment is projected to decline by 154 students (-6%), from 2,670 students today to 2,516 students in 2029. Like elementary schools, although this decline is projected districtwide, it is not consistent across middle schools. Bigelow is projected to increase in enrollment to around 500-520 students over the next five years because of the change in elementary school feeder patterns that began in fall 2023, while the other three middle schools are projected to decrease in enrollment. Please note that the decline in enrollment projected at Day is also due to the change in elementary school feeder patterns that began in fall 2023, as intended. High school enrollment grew this fall, with an increase of 18 students from last year. Next year, grades 11 and 12 are projected to be over 1,000 students but total high school enrollment is
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