TOTAL HIGH SCHOOL
3,997 4,015 3,945 3,895 3,833 3,848 3,871
GRAND TOTAL
11,596 11,494 11,335 11,218 11,164 11,149 11,151
* This doesn’t include Pre-K enrollment estimated at 161 students in 2026.
The current enrollment projections through 2030 show overall district enrollment declines in the first three years, as larger classes graduate grade 12 and smaller kindergarten classes are projected to enter. The fourth-year projections show overall stability in district enrollment. As in prior years, the current enrollment projections include students projected to enroll from permitted residential developments. Districtwide, Newton’s elementary enrollment is projected to decline next year as the larger current fifth grade cohort of 902 students moves to the middle schools and projected cohort sizes range from 677 to 848 students across kindergarten through fifth grade. Elementary enrollment over the remaining four years of the projections shows small increases in enrollment as slightly larger kindergarten classes are projected to enter (growth ranging from 0.5% to 1.3% in each year), with total elementary enrollment returning to similar levels as the current year in years four and five of the projections. Although overall elementary enrollment is projected to grow slightly over the next five years, this growth is not consistent across individual elementary schools. Most elementary schools are projected to decline in enrollment over the next five years; the elementary schools that are projected to grow are due to new and anticipated residential developments in those districts. For the fifth year in a row, middle schools saw a decline in enrollment this fall of 26 students, which was projected (a projected decline of -25 students). Typically, NPS sees a decline in cohort size from grade 5 to grade 6, as students leave for private middle schools. For the third year in a row, the cohort grew from grade 5 to grade 6 (this cohort grew by 5 students in fall 2025; see Table 8). It is possible that students who would have left NPS for private school in grade 6 left during the pandemic, thus changing the typical cohort pattern again this fall. Middle schools are projected to grow next year (+35 students), as the incoming sixth grade class is larger than the outgoing eighth grade class. Middle school enrollment then decreases in each year over the remaining four years of the projection, ranging from a yearly decrease of -0.5% to -3.1%, as smaller incoming sixth grade cohorts enter the middle schools. Over the five-year projection, middle school enrollment is projected to decline by 133 students (-5%), from 2,644 students today to 2,511 students in fall 2030. Like elementary schools, although this decline is projected districtwide, it is not consistent across middle schools. Bigelow is projected to increase in enrollment to around 500-520 students over the next five years because of the change in elementary school feeder patterns that began in fall 2023, while the other three middle schools are projected to decrease in enrollment. Please note that the decline in enrollment projected at Day is also due to the change in elementary school feeder patterns that began in fall 2023, as intended. High schools are projected to decline by 50 students next year (-1.3%), as the current 12th grade cohort of close to 1,000 students graduates and is replaced by a smaller 9th grade cohort. High school enrollment is projected to continue to decline in fall 2027 as the final cohort of over 1,000 students graduates and is replaced with smaller grade 9 cohorts, and then the high schools are projected to have relative stability with enrollment around 3,850 students (a decline of around 100 students from current enrollment).
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