The typical cohort survival ratio methodology of enrollment projections using five-year historical data yields the projections for grades 1 through 12. For the past 4 years, a five-year adjusted cohort survival ratio omitting 2020 has been utilized (and thus used only 4 years’ worth of enrollment data); this year, data from the prior five years is used (including fall 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025 enrollment). Similar to last year, the five-year cohort survival ratios were adjusted for the kindergarten-to-grade 1 cohorts to utilize a four-year cohort survival ratio: this omits the fall 2021 enrollment data, which consisted of very large cohort growth from kindergarten to grade 1, likely attributable to impacts from the pandemic. The kindergarten projections have been calculated using an adjusted five-year average of previous kindergarten enrollments by school. Kindergarten projections have been made with a three-year, four-year, or five-year average methodology since 2014; prior to 2014, city census data was utilized for kindergarten projections. The shift to the average methodology for kindergarten occurred because city census data began producing kindergarten projections that were too low. An adjusted five-year average (2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, and 2021) for kindergarten is used this year, which is shift from recent years where an adjusted three-year average was used for kindergarten. This year, a five-year average was used for consistency with the methodology utilized for grades 1-12 and because a five-year average resulted in more stable projections for kindergarten enrollment. See Section II for more information and discussion of the full methodology used in this year’s projection. This year’s projections use a five-year average cohort survival ratio (CSR) methodology like recent years and includes enrollment in fall 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025 to calculate the five-year average CSRs. In addition, the cohort survival ratios for the grade K-to-1 cohorts have been adjusted to use a four-year average based on lingering enrollment impacts from the pandemic (omitting enrollment in fall 2021, where the CSR from K-1 was very large at most elementary schools).
The following factors are integrated into the projections:
• School feeder patterns, district boundaries and buffer zones reflect current School Committee policies. Student assignment policy changes for the Angier, Zervas, and Cabot districts, and the effects on nearby school districts, were approved in September 2015 and October 2018 and are fully integrated into the projections. • Students participating in the METCO program are added to each school and grade after the average cohort survival ratios are applied. Students participating in the METCO program who will enter the system in kindergarten, grade one, or grade two each year for the next five years are also included in the individual school tables by grade. • The number of entering middle and high school students is based on percentages of students from lower grade level schools to reflect districting, out-of-district placements, and buffer zones. • The number of potential students from new residential properties is calculated and added to each school and grade after the average cohort survival ratios have been applied when special permits or building permits have been issued by the City of Newton.
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