Multi-Year Budget Projection Analysis
Included above is a projection of the school budget over a five-year period. The projection model serves as a tool to examine various revenue assumptions over time and to compare the assumptions to projected expenditures for the school district. Not as detailed as the full budget proposal, the forecast is based on the Superintendent’s Proposed Budget for FY25 to show the expected trends through FY30. The FY26 City allocation for Newton Public Schools is based on a 3.65% increase. Since FY25, the Operating Budget increase, the multi-year projection includes the newly established Education Stabilization Fund. This fund was created with an initial balance of $22 million. In FY26, the amount of Stabilization funds used will increase by the same percentage as our 3.65% allocation from the City. The multi-year budget projection shows the uses of the Stabilization Fund over the course of 5 years, starting with $4.1 million in FY25. Lastly, the FY26 budget increase includes actual and estimated costs for all collective bargaining contracts. The multi-year forecast assumes a 3.5% budget increase for FY27 through FY30, as well as use of the Stabilization funding over the five-year period from FY25 through FY29. In FY30, the Stabilization funding is projected to be totally expended, which will cause a significant reduction in funding and significantly contributing to an already growing budget gap.
Below are the basic assumptions for years FY25 through FY30
• Health Insurance: a net rate increase of 7.8% in FY26 due to $1.3M in one-time City funding. This $1.3 million in additional one-time funding needs to be made up in FY27, in addition to an average projected rate increase of 7% from FY27 to FY30
• Dental Insurance: rate increase of 4% each year
• Life and Disability Insurance: increase by 1% each year
Medicare: increase by 5% each year
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• Medicare Part B Reimbursement: reduced by 50% in FY27 and FY28, after which it is anticipated to have been phased out • Out-of-district Tuition: rate increase of 8.7% in FY27 due to increased expenditure needs in FY25 that are expected to continue through FY26; after FY27, rate is projected to slowly decrease each year, ending in an increase of 5.5% in FY30 • Regular Transportation and Special Education Transportation: all increase by 3.50% each contract non-renewal year, and an assumed higher increase in both Yellow Bus and Special Education transportation during contract renewal years.
• Utilities: rate increase of 2.7% annually
• Charter Maintenance: increase by 3.5% each year
• All Other Expenses: increase by 2.0% - 3.0% annually for inflation
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