Risks include tighter lending restrictions that are con - straining otherwise qualified buyers, a slowing recovery for the job market, new-buyer attrition, and increasing defaults once the forbearance period ends. 2021 SFR Housing Price Forecast: -5 percent to 0 percent
year, and any dip in prices should encourage demand from both homebuyers and investors. Demand will stay elevated in the suburban areas, while demand in the more populous areas may be muted. This will be a negative factor for the market if interest rates climb. Other risks for 2021 include variability around expiring forbearance and eviction policies. Once the consumer protections expire, spikes in foreclosures and evictions will have a negative effect on prices.
Disclaimer: The variability around this forecast is wide and dependent upon data available as of September 2020. The severity and duration of the COVID-19 epidemic, as well as the response of the public and policymakers, continues to change daily.
Current Rent Price
Rent vs Income
Current Home Price
© 2020 Mapbox © OpenStreetMap
© 2020 Mapbox © OpenStreetMap
© 2020 Mapbox © OpenStreetMap
3Bd SFR Rental Price
Rent vs Income
SFR Home Price
$1,000
$1,600
20.0%
35.0%
$130,000
$325,000
RENTAL RATES Real estate investors in the Cincinnati market have had very strong SFR price appreciation over the last five years with an increase in rent prices of nearly 20 percent. As of September 2020, the median three-bedroom, SFR home in the Cincinnati MSA is $1,315/mo; an increase of three percent from last year. Anecdotal reports from many of the large institutional firms have reported excellent rent collection from their SFR portfolios through August. However, smaller land - lords have begun reporting non payments on a quarter of their properties, partly due to limited plans they can offer tenants. Cincinnati MSA rent prices have had a tight relation - ship with household income since 2012. This is very healthy and sustainable, leading to a moderate rent-to- income ratio of 25.2 percent for SFR properties. This is well below the national average of 32 percent. Central
Cincinnati ranges between 30 percent and 40+ percent, as these areas have a larger segment of low-wage earners. Suburban areas show a very moderate rent-to- income of 20 to 30 percent.
WHERE DO RENTS GO FROMHERE? Cincinnati Rental Rates Prediction 2021
In 2020 Rents have remained fairly level to this point, thanks in part to the federal stimulus. Rents typically de - cline into the winter, but the three main drivers for rental prices in 2021 are the CDC eviction moratorium expiring on the new year, unemployment rising, and the timing and conditions for a new federal stimulus package. Risks stem from a significant number of lower-income jobs affected by the high unemployment, where a new stimulus package may be the only answer for some ten - ants to keep up with payments. Increased evictions will add to vacancies and lower overall demand. Depending
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