Absa AgriTrends 2023 Autumn Edition

As mentioned above, the International Monetary fund adjusted its January projections for global growth upwards. This was predominantly driven by the re-opening of the Chinese economy.

What could be the possible effect of China’s re-emergence on global macroeconomic factors?

Higher growth would however also have implications for other macroeconomic metrics such as inflation. Considering the prevalent role that inflation has played in economies and markets during 2022, it is worthwhile considering what inflation could look like over the coming years within the context of higher Chinese and global growth. This is explored in the figures below.

Inflation is expected to ease in most countries in 2023 and 2024, but views differ

PwC

OECD

IMF

PwC

OECD

2023

2024

6,0

2024

8,0 7,0 6,0 5,0 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 0,0

2023

5,1

4,9

6,9

5,0

6,6

4,4

4,3

5,9

4,0

5,5

4,0

5,4

5,1

4,7

4,5

4,2

3,9

3,0

3,8

3,5

2,5 2,6

2,3

2,2

2,0

2,0

2,2

2,2

2,1

1,0

0,0

EU US South Africa

China Brazil

EU US South Africa

China Brazil

OECD PwC IMF

OECD PwC

Source: OECD, IMF, and PwC, 2023

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