Analysts estimate that from 2017 to 2021, 29% of global exports of barley, corn, and wheat were supplied by Ukraine and Russia. The effect of the war in Ukraine
Australia, the war, as mentioned above, and relatively low global stock to use ratios, have contributed to elevated risk being priced into grain price levels. Taking a future perspective, there is a saying amongst market analysts that the cure to high prices is high prices. This notion seems to be supported by views from institutions such as the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute at the University of Missouri, which project that wheat and corn prices will follow a downward trend over the coming years (consider Table 2.5 to the right) on the back of higher production induced by current high prices.
Dry conditions in key exporting markets have also played a pivotal role in the price runs in 2022
has however resulted in disruption in grain exports from the Black Sea region. In an attempt to mitigate the effect of the war on trade flows and global food prices, the Black Sea Grain deal was
brokered by the United Nations and an agreement to continue with trade from the region was reached in July and further renewed in November 2022. Despite this, the share of global exports from the Black Sea region dropped to 22% of global trade in 2022. Dry conditions in key exporting markets have also played a pivotal role in the price runs in 2022. Three years of La Niña have led to unfavourable production conditions in South America and the Western Plains of the US and although for commodities such as wheat, this was offset by good production conditions in Russia and
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