Absa AgriTrends 2023 Autumn Edition

During times of increasing costs, output prices did not keep up

In order to get a sense of how prices of key export commodities compared to pre-pandemic price levels, Figure 3.2 was developed. Here, price levels from 2019-2022 were compared to price levels in 2018 and the figure shows the difference in percentage terms. This shows that 5 of the 7 export commodities shown here had lower prices in 2022 than in 2018, with table grapes recording modest increases over the last two years. Avocados, in turn, recorded good price performance. Price movements however do not tell the full story. In the case of avocados and table grapes, production conditions, quality issues and lower volumes (in the case of avocados specifically) weighed on profitability over the last two years. Considering the rate of cost increases, the lower or sideways movements in prices have put margins in the high-value export industry under severe pressure. The question is to what extent market conditions can improve and allow scope for improved margins. We unpack our views on this in the section below.

During years of increasing costs, export prices have come under pressure

2019

2020

2021

2022

100,00

80,00

60,00

40,00

20,00

0,00

-20,00

-40,00

-60,00

Avos

Oranges

Soft Citrus

Lemons Blue Berries Macadamias Table Grapes

2019 2020 2021 2022

Source: Calculated from Trademap, 2023

43

Made with FlippingBook interactive PDF creator