Looking Ahead
Table 3.2
Avocados (USD/ton)
Our views over the medium term
2019 2020 2021 2022
1 311.60 1 309.90 1 752.40 1 577.60
Avocados
Global avocado exports doubled over the past decade, with avocado exports from Southern Hemisphere producers increasing by more than 10% per year over the last decade. Around 80% of total avocado exports from South Africa is destined for the EU, with the lion’s share of avocados not destined for the EU going to the UK. Given the severe cost of living crisis that consumers in both these territories have experienced over the past months, spending is likely to be constrained, which would likely affect room for significant price growth. Another issue constraining export price growth could be the large volumes entering the EU from other Southern Hemisphere producers, particularly Peru. Early indications for 2023 show that Peruvian export volumes for 2023 are likely to increase by 12% compared to 2022. The current season could however hold opportunity if South African exporters capitalise on the early export marketing window in March and April. In this regard, European production has finished early, and Peruvian exports will only reach the EU by the end of April or the start of May. Our view is that dollar or euro-based export prices will increase over the coming years, but at a much slower rate than we have seen over the last five
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1 600.00 1 650.00 1 690.00
2023 2024 2025
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to ten years. In order to capitalise on market opportunities in traditional export markets, timing would be key. In this regard, 2023 seems to suggest that weeks 10-17 could provide South Africa with a lucrative marketing opportunity.
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