Citrus
Citrus prospects for 2023 look favourable in key South African export markets
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Overall, citrus prospects for 2023 look favourable in key South African export markets. In this regard, Spain had a small harvest and is out of the market early, which creates a gap for early deliveries into Europe. Egypt, in turn, is reportedly struggling with sizing problems which is expected to add to the potential for good prices at the start of the season. Morocco is also expected to have lower production in the 2022/23 season. This was underpinned by water issues and adverse weather. In the US, California is likely to conclude the season early due to heavy rains which caused producers to expedite picking and packing. This creates space for early exports into the US market. Some consolidation in the industry is also apparent, with unprofitable blocks starting to be removed and only top- quality fruit being packed for shipping. This is confirmed by the apparent lower crop projection released by the Citrus Growers Association earlier in March. A consolidation trend would likely also be a reality for other Southern Hemisphere exporters. With the exception of lemons, a more favourable local juice price also supports a more focused export approach, where a
lucrative juice market creates space for class 2 and class 3 fruit to be processed instead of packed and shipped. Lemon juice stocks are, however, limiting the scope for increased processing of lemons. Market stakeholders note that early lemons could perform well in export markets but that this could ease as other Southern Hemisphere exports enter and come online. In terms of soft citrus specifically, average export prices continue to perform well but on-farm profitability of this product is largely determined by the age distribution of a producer's orchard. Given the significant cost increases as explained above, a large share of trees not in full production is likely to put
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