increasingly stringent market access measures in this market, are also likely to lead to lower volumes which will drive prices higher. China still only absorbs around 6% of South African citrus exports (in value terms). With various South African citrus expansions planted with the vision of a strong demand pull from China, all eyes will be on this market to see if it can reach its envisioned potential in the post-COVID context. To date, lockdowns and intense COVID waves might have constrained its market potential as a destination for South African citrus fruit.
producers under pressure despite prices holding firm. With more than 50% of soft citrus area younger than the age of 4 years, medium-term projections point to future bottle- necks caused by limited packing and port capacity in peak weeks for mandarins. The constraints of getting product through the chain are likely to support average export prices, but could still weigh on on-farm profitability. Over the outer years of the outlook period, we expect modest price growth for all citrus categories as consumers' disposable income in key markets recovers from the inflationary shocks apparent in 2022. Structural issues in EU citrus production, combined with
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