Macadamias •
Prices followed a rapidly decreasing trend during 2022 on the back of depressed market activity in key markets such as China and Europe. China, which is the main market for nut-in-shell (NIS) exports from South Africa, has had weak demand as a result of the prolonged pandemic lockdown, whereas Europe, a kernel market, is suffering from a cost of living crisis. The effect of the above is a stock build-up by local processors and also by importers and retailers in foreign markets. Reports on consumption during the Chinese new year signal stronger demand out of China. Our view is therefore that prices could rebound over the medium term. It is however unlikely that this will return to levels seen during the late 2010s. As the global macadamia industry matures, more opportunities will also arise in ingredient markets as part of food formulation. This, however, requires a consistent supply of sufficient volumes. Our view is that we are now entering a stage of production where volumes have increased sufficiently to unlock these opportunities. In the case of ingredient markets, the built-up stock could also facilitate consistent supply. The opaqueness around stock levels would however need to be addressed to provide clear market signals in this regard.
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