To gauge where diesel prices could go in the future, one can consider outlooks for oil and the exchange rate. In terms of the former, oil market analysts note that oil prices are likely to continue to trade between USD 80 to USD 90 per barrel for the rest of the year, with some upside risk as the Chinese economy gains renewed pace. The ZAR/USD exchange rate is also likely to remain under pressure, depreciating to around R18.65 to the US dollar by the end of 2023. This is likely to keep diesel prices at elevated levels over the next 12-18 months. The Road Accident Fund levy concession made to businesses during the National budget speech will however provide some relief in this regard.
The cost of electricity will continue to become substantially more expensive in the years ahead Not only are businesses faced with load-shedding and rising fuel costs, but the cost of electricity will continue to become substantially more expensive in the years ahead. The cash flow and investment impact are explained in more detail below.
Current diesel prices are over 100% more expensive than in 2012
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