The typical retirement age of a coal-fired power plant is 50 years. At the end of 2023, the Eskom fleet will have multiple stations older than this. By 2027, 21% of the current Eskom fleet should be retired. Compounded by the ageing fleet of coal-fired power stations and lack of maintenance
performed over multiple years as well as theft, Eskom has been faced with continual breakdowns of their generation units. This has all culminated, at the end of 2022, in the highest frequency and incidence of load-shedding yet.
Current electricity supply and prospects for the future
An ageing power plant fleet provides limited scope to improve Energy Availability Factors
To provide relief to this situation, on a utility scale, there are essentially two paths forward. The first is to improve the energy availability factor which has been consistently decreasing since 2016 (see Figure 4.3 below). Given the current realities of theft and breakdowns, as explained above, this option has limited scope to provide relief short-term relief.
Breakdowns and theft are driving down EAF with limited prospects of improvement in the near future
90
78.7
76.4
80
71.8
66.9
65
70
61.8
58.1
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Source: Eskom, 2023
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