Under a low electricity price increase scenario, the project is cash flow positive in year 5
Break-even
10 000 000.00
8 000 000.00
6 000 000.00
4 000 000.00
2 000 000.00
0.00
-2 000 000.00
-4 000 000.00
-6 000 000.00
2024
2025 2026
2027
2028 2029 2030
2031 2032
2033 2034
Source: Absa AgriBusiness, 2023
There are increasing signs that the “high road” scenario is starting to play out, which further improves the business case for renewables by
Eskom price trajectories over the next 10 years. For the first two years (2023 and 2024) price increases will amount to 18.65% and 12.74%, as announced by NERSA. After this, we explore 3 future scenarios for an average annual increase:
• 8% as a low path, • 12% average annual
the middle ground, and • 15% for an average annual increase.
moving break-even points up to year 6
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