American Consequences - October 2018

The "Real Word" Series

SUPER BOWL F MID MAD

For most of the year soothsayers have seen the possibility – occasionally the likelihood – of a Democratic wave this November, sweeping Democratic majorities into both the House of Representatives and the Senate. It’s an unusual moment in political time: The economy is humming, consumer confidence is high, and Gallup says 90% of Americans are “satisfied with their job security.” Meanwhile, a solid majority say the country is on the wrong track. Despite ups and downs, Trump’s approval rating always regresses to a mean in the low to mid-40s, though some polls weeks before the election show his approval dropping several points below 40%.

The Republican Party has been synonymous, at least notionally, with political and cultural conservatism for two generations. Now it is synonymous with President Donald Trump – not “Trumpism,” because there is no such thing beyond the president’s reflexive love of tariffs and dislike of immigrants. Trumpism is whatever Trump tweeted this morning. The coming election is about little else than Trump. Not the growing economy, not the trade wars, not even such golden oldies as gay marriage. It’s about Trump and what voters think of him, which isn’t great news for the elephant.

By Andrew Ferguson

28 October 2018

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