unproved charge of collusion with the Russian government. But the reason for impeachment doesn’t matter. The House of Representatives can impeach the president over an unpaid parking ticket if it wants to, so long as a majority of members persuade themselves it’s a “high crime and misdemeanor.” Any impeachment drive would have to proceed next year over the objections of the Democratic leadership in Congress. Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer have both been in Washington long enough to have witnessed the impeachment of Bill Clinton in 1998 by the Republican-controlled House, and they remember the result in that off-year election: Expecting to gain 30 or more seats in the House, Republicans instead lost five and put their majority in jeopardy. Schumer and Pelosi also remember that the ripples from Clinton’s impeachment toppled not one but two Republican congressional leaders, Speaker Newt Gingrich and his anointed successor Bob Livingston. As the 2018 election heats up, the political class has taken to insisting that a Democratic House majority will lead inevitably to impeachment. The leadership’s long memory makes that unlikely. They remember Napoleon’s famous axiom: Do not interrupt your enemy when Robert Mueller is in the process of destroying him. Trump and his advisers hope the same voters who lifted him to victory will reassemble this November to save the day. He’s scheduled more than a dozen rallies in key states to make sure they do. But even he’s expressed doubt. (I will pause for a moment so you can recover from that sentence.) “There’s a real question whether [Republicans] are even
going to vote if I’m not on the ballot,” Trump said not long ago. This is the most self-centered and inside-out way of expressing a real insight. Trump won’t want to admit it, but in 2016 he benefited massively from “ABH syndrome,” the bug that struck large numbers of voters who decided to vote for “Anybody But Hillary.” Whatever her other virtues – I’m thinking, I’m thinking – Clinton was not only one of the most familiar personages ever to run for The political class has taken to insisting that a Democratic House majority will lead inevitably to impeachment. The leadership’s long memory makes that unlikely. president but also one of the most intensely disliked. (A cynic would even say those two facts are related.) Political scientists argue how much of Trump’s vote can be attributed solely to ABH. Another affliction undoubtedly helped him as well: “EDT,” afflicting voters who decided they would vote for “Even Donald Trump” if it meant defeating Hillary Clinton. Which is to say the Trump coalition wasn’t entirely, or even mostly, about Trump the man. It is unlikely to gather again with Clinton safely retired. Then Republicans must face the pitiless matter of math. As happens every two years, every one of the 435 House seats is on the ballot. Incumbency is a virtual guarantee of reelection in the House, but a record
30 October 2018
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