While economic distress may harm the party in power, economic strength might not help it as much as in the past. self-described socialist who narrowly lost the Democratic presidential nomination in 2016. While much of the energy among Democrats is on the far left, the party has made a point of selecting candidates with a real chance of winning in November. Meanwhile, in the Republican primaries, candidates endorsed by Trump, or closely aligned with him, have tended to prevail. But Republicans do not currently have as much enthusiasm as Democrats, which may affect turnout among the party’s supporters in November. Midterm elections are almost always a referendum on the president and his policies. In the 2010 and 2014 midterm elections, strong Republican majorities were viewed as a repudiation of President Barack Obama. Accordingly, Democrats have been framing the midterms as a referendum on Trump. At the same time, Republicans have tried to make the midterms about Nancy Pelosi, the liberal House Minority Leader from San Francisco who would likely return as Speaker if the Democrats gain a House majority. The problem is that a potential Speaker is a tougher target to hit than a sitting president, let alone one as persuasive in the media as Trump. For now, attention is being paid to the economy’s potential role in the election.
seats than the Republicans. In several recent special elections, Republicans have held on by far narrower margins than in past elections for the same congressional seats. There are a number of plausible explanations for this anomaly. For starters, the pollsters and pundits could simply be wrong, as many were in the 2016 election. At the same time, President Donald Trump may be hurting his and his party’s electoral prospects, especially among suburban women, by launching personal attacks against those who criticize him – including the popular basketball star LeBron James. And it is possible that, despite high ratings for his handling of the economy, many voters may not attribute the economy’s strength to Trump’s policies. But another possibility is that the “economic effect” on elections no longer holds true. While economic distress may harm the party in power, economic strength might not help it as much as in the past. As voters become wealthier, more have the luxury of focusing on other issues. In the Democratic primary election for New York’s 14th district earlier this year, democratic socialist Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trounced incumbent Representative Joseph Crowley, the fourth-ranking Democrat in the House. Clearly overconfident, Crowley barely even campaigned. Since then, Ocasio- Cortez has become a media darling, appearing alongside Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, a
70 October 2018
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