ECONOMIC MODELLING OF COVID-19 SCENARIOS Early in the pandemic, in March 2020, researchers Professor WarwickMcKibbin and Roshen Fernando in the ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CEPAR), based at The Australian National University, produced the first wide-ranging global economic assessment of the effects of Coronavirus disease. Their goal was to help policymakers prepare a coordinated response to the economic costs of a pandemic as the virus rapidly evolved. The research modelled seven scenarios of the impact of the coronavirus on the world economy. The scenarios ranged from containing COVID-19 in mid-2020 to ongoingwaves of the virus over several years. The researchers estimated the global economy could lose up to $US21.8 trillion dollars in 2020 alone due to COVID-19. Professor McKibbin said even under the best-case scenario the global economywould lose up to $US14.7 trillion dollars.
To display their results, the researchers created an online dashboard, the COVID-19 Macroeconomic Modelling Results Dashboard . It also examines other key economic impacts of COVID-19 including the impact on government spending, wage subsidies and household transfers, country risk assessments and potential rates for mortality (the proportion of total populationwho dies) and morbidity (people incapacitated or caring for the incapacitated and unable towork). This researchwas updated in July andAugust 2020 as more data on the pandemic became available. Throughout 2020, and up to the present, researchers at CEPAR, which is administered by The University of New SouthWales, have continued to release modelling and conduct research into howthe pandemic has been affecting Australia and the world, and in particular older people.
THE ARC CENTRE OF EXCELLENCE IN POPULATION AGEING RESEARCH HAS BEEN BRINGING TOGETHER ACADEMICS, GOVERNMENT AND INDUSTRY REPRESENTATIVES TO DISCUSS THE IMPLICATIONS FOR PENSIONS, SUPERANNUATION AND RETIREMENT IN A POST-COVID-19 WORLD.
Credit: iStock.com/Mark Kriedemann.
RESPONDING TO COVID-19
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