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Eskom shares its 2026 Winter Outlook
Eskom Group Executive for Generation, Bheki Nxumalo.
Eskom Group Chief Executive, Dan Marokane.
A t a media briefing on 22 April 2026, Eskom presented its Winter Outlook for the period 1 April to 31 August 2026. The utility enters the 2026 winter season with a resilient power system, projecting a winter period of continued energy stability following the successful conclusion of the summer period, during which the national grid operated with ongoing sustained reliability. With the Generation Recovery Plan embedded in day to day operations, Eskom has moved beyond short-term recovery into a phase of stability and sustained energy security and aims to ensure that homes, businesses and industries remain powered through the peak winter months. Eskom maintained a consistent energy supply of 98.9% through the past Financial Year (1 April 2025 to 31 March 2026), a major improvement from 9% two years ago, and this reflects the fundamental strengthening of generation performance, operational discipline and system resilience. The winter outlook anticipates improved reliability and availability across the generation fleet. Additional capacity has been secured primarily through a 5.2 GW reduction in unplanned losses, supplemented by 1.1 GW from demand side management programmes, enabling Eskom to meet national demand this winter. On this basis, it has a surplus peak capacity of about 6 GW over the winter period. These improvements allow Eskom to lower its base case
assumption for unplanned outages to around 12 GW, compared to 13 GW in the previous winter outlook. Even under higher stress conditions, where unplanned losses approach 14 GW, the system is expected to remain resilient, and no load shedding is anticipated under the planned-for scenarios. The 2026 Winter Outlook takes into account Eskom’s expanded customer base. During FY2026, the utility completed 67578 new household connections, with a further 2119 households supplied through distributed energy resources (DERs) in the form of microgrids, which help reduce pressure on the national grid, particularly during peak periods. Despite supplying electricity to these additional customers compared to the previous winter, improved generation reliability, reduced unplanned losses, and strengthened operational buffers support a stable winter outlook, with sufficient capacity to meet expected demand. Eskom Group Chief Executive, Dan Marokane, said: “Eskom, and South Africa, now have a stable electricity platform to operate and grow from. This enables us to integrate renewable energy sources as per the 2025 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) for the maintenance of energy security in the future. Eskom is consciously assessing the new capacity build rate across all required technologies as this, along with other socio-economic conditions, will be key in determining the transition of the coal fired power stations.“ “When our generation fleet was unstable, it was very difficult to embed cost savings Today, we have dramatically reduced diesel
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availability is one of the aspects of hydrogen development in Africa most acutely assessed, especially for gigawatt-scale export projects. Due to the large volumes of water required to produce hydrogen, green hydrogen projects invariably need to be located on the coastline – desalinating seawater to create a responsible water source that does not compete with drinking water requirements of local communities. Smaller inland hydrogen projects, such as those targeting local fertiliser production, present different challenges, Heather-Clark points out. These may use alternative water sources such as treated mine water or sewage, but here too, cumulative basin impacts must be assessed carefully.
SLR Consulting highlights that early environmental and social planning is essential for managing the scale, complexity and potential impacts of gigawatt-scale green hydrogen projects.
For more information visit: www.slrconsulting.com
MAY 2026 Electricity + Control
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