Figure 17: Economic impacts by sector
From the primary data collected, we derived an average reduction in turnover, investment and headcount for firms within the family business sector, based on reported estimates from family business owners. The average percentage change is the weighted average of all respondents. Turnover was used as a proxy for output and served as the input to the Input-Output (I-O) model. Further details on the I-O model can be found in Appendix 2. To ensure robustness, only sectors with more than 30 responses – highlighted in green – were included in the modelling. The average percentage change refers to the average change of respondents in the given sector. These impacts were modelled using data from the ONS Input-Output Analytical Tables, national accounts on household expenditure, and income tax ratios, which were applied to the changes in output to estimate the revenue forgone due to reduced economic activity. Additionally, HM Treasury’s own analysis of tax revenue gains from the proposed policy change was incorporated to assess the net fiscal impact over the parliamentary period, specifically in relation to the changes to BPR and APR. The model’s outputs enable the estimation of impacts on tax revenues, including production and product taxes, income tax, National Insurance contributions, and changes in employee spending.
33
Made with FlippingBook - professional solution for displaying marketing and sales documents online