“Wood Mackenzie scenario paints a misleading picture about the road ahead” recent meeting hosted by the IEA that it is unfair to expect developing countries to stop using fossil fuels, BBC reported. “You have 800 million people who don’t have access to electricity… You can’t say that they have to go to net zero. No, sorry, they have the right to develop…they want to build skyscrap- ers and have a higher standard of living, and you can’t stop it,” he said. ATB Capital Markets says that while net zero is an important goal collectively, some emerging economies may have different priorities. “For North America and much of Europe, focus in the last decade has been to curb the consumption of oil. For India and China however, the focus has been on raising the quality of life for its people,” analysts said in a research note last week. Natural gas critical in all scenarios In the Wood Mackenzie scenario, demand for natural gas “remains resilient” over the coming decades as Asia’s developing markets replace coal with natural gas for power generation. This is similar to the IEA’s Sustainable Development Scenario, where natural gas demand decreases to 344 billion cubic feet per day in 2040, from about 390 billion cubic feet per day in 2019. But in the more likely Stated Policies Scenario, global natural gas demand is expected to continue increasing, to 505 billion cubic feet per day in 2040. Replacing coal with natural gas-fired power is a key long-term opportunity for Canada. Just one project, LNG Canada, is expected to reduce GHG emissions in China by the equivalent amount of shutting down 20 to 40 coal-fired plants.
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JUNE 2021 • SPOTLIGHT ON BUSINESS MAGAZINE
SPOTLIGHT ON BUSINESS MAGAZINE • JUNE 2021
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