// ECONOMIC SECURITY: MACROECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL POLICY
Restoring confidence, strengthening the foundations for resilience and growth
Mathias Cormann, OECD secretary-general
sus and drive coordinated action on common challenges. This year, the OECD will continue our longstanding engagement with the G7, support- ing the French presidency’s agenda on enhancing the foundations for stronger, more resilient and sustaina- ble growth with our data, analysis and evidence-based recommendations. perity. For more than 50 years, the G7 has brought countries together to bridge differences, forge consen- T he global economy continues to show resilience but is being tested. Growth in gross domes- tic product was higher than expected in the second half of 2025, reaching 3.4% year on year in the third quarter and 3.2% in the fourth quarter, which lifted the outlook for 2026. However, the most recent outbreak of conflict in the Middle East and the resulting energy shock have weakened growth prospects and increased inflationary pressures. The Organisation for Eco- nomic Co-operation and Development now projects global growth at 2.9% in 2026 and 3.0% in 2027, with significant downside risks should the conflict and associated supply chain disruptions escalate. The G7 continues to play a key role in enabling dialogue and international cooperation in support of shared pros-
Rising geopolitical tensions and energy shocks are weighing on global economic prospects. As risks intensify, the G7 should focus on strengthening supply chains, mobilising investment, and advancing structural reforms to sustain resilient and inclusive growth
shows that addressing high concen- tration by only relocating production domestically would reduce global real GDP by more than 5%, while creating new vulnerabilities to shocks. Addressing global imbalances will play an essential role in strengthen- ing the rules-based trading system. A common understanding of the extent of global imbalances, their drivers and possible policy responses can foster more balanced growth and lower the risk of disruptions. The OECD is providing analysis on the structural and sectoral drivers of global imbalances, drawing on the MAnufacturing Groups and Indus- trial Corporation (MAGIC) Database to provide insights on the impact of industrial subsidies. Strengthening economic con- nectivity and ensuring diversified, well-functioning markets, includ- ing for critical minerals, are also key to enhancing both resilience and effi- ciency. The OECD is contributing evidence from its Corridors’ Connec-
tivity Scoreboard to help policymakers assess the economic impact of infra- structure investments. The OECD is also supporting the operationali- sation of G7 leaders’ commitments under their Critical Minerals Action Plan, leveraging its work on mineral traceability to foster standards-based markets and resilient critical mineral supply chains. FROM COORDINATION TO ACTION: DELIVERING STRUCTURAL REFORM Mobilising investment and strength- ening development partnerships are also essential. Financing needs in developing countries continue to grow, at a time when official develop- ment assistance budgets have become increasingly constrained. OECD data show that official development assis- tance fell by over 7% in real terms in 2024, after several years of growth. Increasing the effectiveness of ODA, mobilising more private finance at scale and boosting opportunities from global supply chain integration
REWIRING GLOBAL TRADE FOR RESILIENCE AND STABILITY
Strengthening the resilience of supply chains while preserving the benefits of open markets and the rules-based global trading system remains a key priority. Global trade and production remain deeply interconnected, with around 60% of global trade comprising intermediate goods. OECD analysis also shows that supply chains have become more concentrated and more exposed to disruption. Across nearly 4,800 traded products, the share of import-concentrated goods was about 50% higher in the early 2020s than in the late 1990s. Our evidence also
34 // G7 FRANCE: THE ÉVIAN SUMMIT 2026
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