The EU: In or Out?
Sam Cleary: The first question then. The EU: should the UK be in or out? Joe Riordan: I don’t see the point in staying in the EU. I don’t believe it brings that much. We need the EU in trade negotiations, but outside it we can get deals that are, if not the same, then definitely similar to what we have at the moment. The UK could certainly stand on its own two feet and have a very active role once more, standing alone in the world. Tohid Ismail: You’re suggesting that we are going to leave the EU, get our own trade deal and have free trade – but we don’t know. And that’s the crucial thing. Once we leave there will be a need to restructure our economy and that will have implications, at least in the short term. I am certain that there will be a recession at least in the short term, and probably in the longer term. It wouldn’t just be a shock – this would be a massive change. Justin Kugel: Surely we have an obligation to look at what this will mean for the rest of the EU? If the UK left, it is likely that the EU will decompose and break up within the next five to ten years. Joe Riordan: Yes, but I think we are in that stage anyway. I can’t see the EU lasting more than 10 or 15 years. Tohid Ismail: That’s the issue. Things have become hard now. We need to come together. It’s estimated that this year the EU will take in over a million migrants, next year two million. You can’t just say look, things have got tough, let’s just break up. Joe Riordan: I’m not saying we ignore our migrant crisis. I’m not saying we adapt isolation as policy. I think even if we are outside the EU we can still have very good relations with nations inside the EU. I just think the EU is collapsing anyway and we might as well leave now. Tom Gardner: The biggest issue is surely that Britain is the largest military power in the EU. And leaving at a time like this will not improve relations; it will almost certainly worsen them. There is no incentive for any other EU nation to react well to Britain leaving because it will only encourage other stronger Eurosceptic parties across Europe to think there are no repercussions. There is no way this will work out positively for Britain in the long term. Justin Kugel: Another reason is that there is no major economy in the world right now that isn’t tied to another economy. So America is tied to China, China likewise to America. Japan is also tied into the economies of those two countries. But China is not very stable right now, nor is America, so which economy is stable enough for the UK to be tied to it? The EU seems more stable than anyone else. Tohid Ismail: Exactly – the EU is our largest trading partner, because it is the nearest. We can say we’re going to increase trade to America, but, as Justin said, they’ve already got China and other relationships. You would just be messing with the world macroeconomic structure and I think that would be dangerous in the long term. But, moving away from economics, there has been a rise in far right and far left parties in Europe; the National Front have gained in France; even in Britain there has been a rise in the fringes at the left and right. And that’s when you really need the EU. Because if you look at European history it tells us that when times are desperate, either because of a depression or a war, it can really divide the continent. Right now we are only discussing what will happen to the migrants currently on the move: the real problem will come when those migrants reach Germany, or the UK, and try to assimilate with those societies. If it doesn’t work, you will see many more incidents like the attacks in Cologne that will really test the power of European relations. And I think that’s when the EU has to stick together. Tom White: Yanis Varoufakis wrote a long article about this just after Syriza had entered power in Greece. Initially Syriza wanted to leave the Eurozone completely. But they made many concessions that were effectively a defeat for them, and one of the reasons was because Varoufakis was worried that the collapse of the EU would lead inevitably to the rise of the far right and other similar factions in countries such as Greece. Tom Gardner: So you have an effective incentive to be careful in the negotiations. And I think that’s probably why they gave in so easily. But Varoufakis didn’t feel that a progressive liberal or leftwing ideology would emerge from the collapse of such a huge European organisation. It would just lead to isolationist, nationalist, and much more violent parties. Joe Riordan: I do agree with you. It is a risk. And for that reason, I think, the Remain campaign will win. But if we do leave the EU, the last thing we should do is pursue an isolationist policy. We have to make sure that we maintain good relations with other countries and keep talking to each other.
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