2021 CENSUS
WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT POPULATION & DWELLINGS IN THE CAPITAL REGION • Canada’s population grew faster than all other G7 countries’ between 2016 and 2021. • BC was the 3rd-fastest-growing province or territory in Canada. • Between 2016 and 2021 the Capital Region grew by 8.4%—faster than the provincial average of 7.6%. Of the Capital Region’s 15 municipalities, 13 grew and 2 declined. • With only 9% of the region’s population in 2016, the City of Langford accommodated more than one-third of the region’s growth between the two Census counts.
the rennie brief
FEBRUARY 2022
As reported by the first batch of 2021 Census data, Canada and BC experienced relatively robust population growth over the past 5 years. Four of the five fastest growing Metro regions in the country were located in British Columbia. Within the Capital Region, the City of Langford accounted for more than one-third of the region’s growth as it grew by 32%.
2016 - 2021 CHANGE
<-6%
-3% to -6%
0 to -3%
0/no data
0 - 2%
2 - 4%
4 - 7%
7 - 14%
14% +
THE CANADIAN CENSUS: THE WHY AND THE WHAT For more than one hundred years, the Census has provided valuable insights to Canadians on attributes such as our age, sex, and marital status, as well as religion, ethnic origin, employment, and the types of housing we live in, among many others. The 2021 Census of Canada was the 23rd enumeration of the Canadian population since Confederation, recording a total of 36,991,981 people in May of 2021. This represented an increase of 1.8 million residents (5% growth) since the previous Census was undertaken in May 2016. When compared to the previous Census period (2011-2016), our annual rate of growth remained relatively unchanged (at 1.0%), while we added slightly more people during the most recent 5-year period (1.8 million vs 1.7 million previously). While among our G7 counterparts Canada has been growing at a more rapid pace, the growth has not been evenly distributed across the country or across our regions.
the rennie brief
BC’S GROWTH RANKED IN THE TOP 3 IN CANADA Within Canada, the fastest-growing province or territory was the Yukon, which grew by 12%, or 4,358 residents, between 2016-2021. Prince Edward Island recorded the second-fastest growth (8.0%; +11,424 people), while BC rounded out the top three as we grew by 7.6% and added 352,824 residents. Ontario added the most people, at 775,448, as that province’s population grew by 5.8%. Each of these four jurisdictions grew faster than the national average of 5.2%, with all other provinces growing more slowly. Within BC, the two fastest-growing regions were Squamish- Lillooet and the Central Okanagan. Relative to provincial growth of 7.6%, the Squamish-Lillooet Regional District grew by 18%—more than twice the provincial pace—as it added 7,831 people. The Central Okanagan Regional District grew by 14% as it added 27,280 residents. The province’s most populous region, Metro Vancouver, grew slightly slower than the provincial average, at 7.3%, between 2016-2021. That said, it did add the most people of any region in BC, at 179,394. Notably, however, Metro Vancouver accommodated only 51% of BC’s total growth in population between 2016-2021, despite representing 53% of BC’s total population in 2016. The Capital Region added the second-most people between the two most recent Census counts, at 32,091 (representing an 8.4% growth rate). In growing more rapidly than the provincial average, the Capital region also saw its share of the The Capital Region’s western communities experienced the bulk of the region’s population growth over the past 5 years. Specifically, Langford grew by 32% over the period—the most rapid growth of any community in BC of over 10,000 residents. The 11,242 people added in Langford represented more than one-third of the Capital Region’s growth between the Census counts. This is even more significant when considered against the City’s stock of population: in 2016 the City represented only 9% of the regional population. Similarly, Sooke (+16%), Colwood (+12.5%), Highlands (+11.6) and View Royal (+11.2%) all grew faster than the regional average. Rounding out the parts of the region that saw faster- than-average growth was North Saanich, which grew by 8.8% between 2016 and 2021. Two other areas of note within the group seeing relatively rapid population growth between the Census counts was the Southern Gulf Islands and Saltspring Island. The Southern Gulf Islands grew at almost the same rate as Langford (29%) as 1,369 new residents were added. Saltspring Island posted a 10% growth rate and added 1,078 new residents. While the numbers are relatively small, the shift in growth patterns to these smaller jurisdictions is notable: with less provincial population increase marginally. GROWTH OF THE WESTERN COMMUNITIES
Total Population Summary CAPITAL REGION MUNICIPALITIES
Number Percentage 2016-2021 Change
2016 2021
Municipality
Langford 35,342 46,584 11,242
32% 29% 16% 12% 12% 11% 10%
Southern Gulf Isl.
4,732 6,101 1,369
Sooke 13,001 15,086 2,085 Colwood 16,859 18,961 2,102 Highlands 2,225 2,482 257 View Royal 10,408 11,575 1,167 Saltspring Island 10,557 11,635 1,078 North Saanich 11,249 12,235 986
than 2% of the region’s population in 2016, the Southern Gulf Islands accommodated more than 4% of the region’s growth over the past five years. At the other end of the spectrum, two municipalities declined in population between 2016 and 2021: Oak Bay (-0.6%) and Esquimalt (-0.7%). Notably, these declines in population correlate with housing stocks that saw little growth over the period. In Oak Bay, the total number of occupied private dwellings increased by only 70 homes between 2016-2021, while in Esquimalt only 72 homes were added. Combined, the occupied dwelling stock in these two municipalities grew by under 1%, well below the regional average of 9%. Other areas of relatively slow housing and population growth when compared to the regional average were Saanich and Central Saanich, each of which grew in the 3% range, both in terms of overall population as well as occupied housing stock. SO WHAT? The magnitude and spatial pattern of population growth has a direct and significant impact on a variety of planning and governance dimensions of our communities, including the magnitude of provincial health care transfers, investments in education infrastructure, and transportation planning. It also reflects, and influences, changes in our housing markets, with faster population growth generally associated with faster dwelling stock expansion, and vice versa. In turn this can have implications for home prices. As one point of comparison, between May 2016 and May 2021, Esquimalt saw median detached housing prices rise by 101% versus the board-area average of 62%. 8.8% Capital RD 383,360 415,451 32,091 8.4% Metchosin 4,708 5,067 359 7.6% Victoria 85,792 91,867 6,075 7.1% Sidney 11,672 12,318 646 5.5% Central Saanich 16,814 17,385 571 3.4% Saanich 114,148 117,735 3,587 3.1% Oak Bay 18,094 17,990 -104 -0.6% Esquimalt 17,655 17,533 -122 -0.7%
The information set out herein (the “Information”) is intended for informational purposes only. rennie has not verified the information and does not represent, warrant or guarantee the accuracy, correctness and completeness of the information. RAR, RMS and rennie do not assume any responsibility or liability of any kind in connection with the information and the recipient’s reliance upon the information. The recipient of the information should take steps as the recipient may deem necessary to verify the information prior to placing any reliance upon the information. The information may change any time without notice or obligation to the recipient from RAR, RMS or rennie.
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